How to tackle complexity in urban climate resilience? Negotiating climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in India

regions/ states are provided in S2 Appendix. The rainfall is expected to increase along the west- ern coast plains and hills, and on the contrary, the western Himalayan region is expected to become drier over the years. The northeastern states are expected to experience significant var- iability in precipitation, ranging from -0.80 mm/day (2050s, RCP8.5) and could be as high as +1.5 mm/day under (2080s, for both RCP8.5 and RCP8.5). An increase in precipitation is expected in western coastal plains and hills that covers coastal parts of Karnataka, Kerala and Maharashtra including 25 cities, some of which are Mangalore, Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Kozhikode, Kollam, Thrissur, Alappuzha, Palakkad, Mumbai and their surrounding suburbs. The increase in precipitation in the region during 2030s is predicted to be 4.66 mm/day under RCP 4.5 and 3.98 mm/day under RCP 8.5. The greatest increase in precipitation is expected in 2080s, as high as 6.4 mm/day under RCP 4.5 and 11.35 mm/day under RCP 8.5. Port Blair on the Andaman & Nicobar Islands is expected to experience an increase of 1.81 to 3.13 mm/day in average precipitation rate in 2080s under RCP 4.5. However, this change might vary between 3.13 and 6.75 mm/day under RCP 8.5. 4.3. Assessment of adaptation alternatives Based on different temperature and precipitation anomalies, five possible pan-India situations emerge (Table 2) for influencing regional vulnerabilities and climate impacts. Out of these, Situ- ation 4 (decrease in projected temperature, decrease in projected precipitation) and Situation 5

(decrease in projected temperature, increase in projected precipitation) have not been observed. Fig 3. Distribution of precipitation (mm/day) under different RCPs during different time-periods against historical reference. Source: World Climate Research Programme and PLOS ONE under CC BY 4.0 license [80]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904.g003 PLOS ONE Negotiating complexity of climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in urban resilience PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904 July 1, 2021 10 / 21