The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers

Data curation: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Krishna Bahadur K. C., Camila I. Donatti, Leonardo Saenz. Formal analysis: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Krishna Bahadur K. C. Funding acquisition: Lee Hannah, Evan D. G. Fraser. Investigation: Lee Hannah. Methodology: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Krishna Bahadur K. C., Aaron Berg. Project administration: Lee Hannah. Resources: Lee Hannah. Software: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz. Supervision: Lee Hannah. Validation: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz. Visualization: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz. Writing – original draft: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Krishna Bahadur K. C., Evan D. G. Fraser, Camila I. Donatti, Leonardo Saenz, Timothy Max Wright, Robert J. Hijmans, Mark Mulligan, Aaron Berg, Arnout van Soesbergen. Writing – review & editing: Lee Hannah, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Krishna Bahadur K. C., Evan D. G. Fraser, Camila I. Donatti, Leonardo Saenz, Timothy Max Wright, Robert J. Hijmans, Mark Mulligan, Aaron Berg, Arnout van Soesbergen. References 1. Fraser E, Legwegoh A, KC KB, CoDyre M, Dias G, Hazen S, et al. Biotechnology or organic? Extensive or intensive? Global or local? A critical review of potential pathways to resolve the global food crisis. Trends in Food Science & Technology. 2016; 48: 78–87. 2. Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, et al. Solutions for a culti- vated planet. Nature. 2011; 478: 337–342, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10452 PMID: 21993620 3. Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, et al. Food security: the chal-

lenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science. 2010; 327(5967): 812–818. https://doi.org/10.1126/science. 1185383 PMID: 20110467 4. KC KB, Dias GM, Veeramani A, Swanton CJ, Fraser D, Steinke D, et al. When too much isn’t enough: Does current food production meet global nutritional needs? PLoS ONE. 2018; 13(10): e0205683. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205683 PMID: 30352069 5. Semenov MA, Shewry PR. Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Scientific Reports. 2011; 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00066 PMID: 22355585 6. Teixeira EI, Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Walter C, Ewert F. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricul- tural crops due to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2013; 170: 206–215. 7. Zabel F, Putzenlechner B, Mauser W. Global agricultural land resources–a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions. PLoS ONE. 2014; 9(9): e107522. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107522 PMID: 25229634 8. Ramankutty N, Foley JA, Norman J, McSweeney K. The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Global Ecology & Biogeography. 2002; 11: 377–392. 9. Rosenzweig C, Elliot J, Deryng AC, Ruane AC, Muller C, Arneth A, et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2014; 111: 3268–3273. https://doi.org/

10.1073/pnas.1222463110 PMID: 24344314 10. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Sci- ence. 2011; 333: 616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531 PMID: 21551030 11. Rosenzweig C, Parry ML. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature. 1994; 367: 133–138. The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228305 February 12, 2020 15 / 19