Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts

Africa, Middle East) and fall in regions with RF CIDR<0% (USA, Brazil) under the effects of global zero cereal import dependency in ID (Fig 5). In regions with RF CIDR>0%, production expands into land in which it is more costly to produce, increasing prices in ID, while regions which do not depend on cereal imports in RF will have lower production and contraction of land in ID (S4 Fig in S1 File), resulting in reduced prices. Fig 4. Percent change of domestic cereal production versus percent change of domestic cereal consumption under (a) ID, (b) CC, and (c) IC compared to RF in 2050. The size of the bubble indicates the extent of cereal import dependency ratio (i.e., CIDR) in RF 2050 deviating from 0%. For comparison, the bubble size of Australia_NZ represents a CIDR of -307%; for Japan it is 77%, and close to 0% at the origin such as for China and India, where the CIDR is 1% and -3%, respectively. For all regional CIDR in RF 2050, please refer to S1 Fig in S1 File. Note that the y-axis in CC is on a smaller scale than ID and IC. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291577.g004 PLOS ONE Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291577 September 15, 2023 9 / 18