Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts

with a corresponding increase in consumption. These effects are amplified the more CIDR deviates from 0% in RF. For example, Australia_NZ, with a RF CIDR of -307% in 2050, shows changes in domestic cereal production and consumption of approximately -50% and +100%, respectively, in ID in 2050. Comparatively, the USA with a CIDR of -23% shows a -12% and +9% change in cereal production and consumption, respectively. Similarly, cereal importing regions with higher CIDR (>0%) in RF are likely to have a larger reduction in cereal consump- tion and a greater increase in cereal production in ID. However, both effects are non-linear (Fig 4a) and are influenced by factors such as the land availability, agricultural productivity, ability to substitute cereals for other food commodities, and income levels. While climate change can influence production and consumption changes in some regions, the impact of the trade perturbations is generally larger (Fig 4a and 4b). One exception is the USA, for which the changes for production and consumption in 2050 in CC, -10.6% and -9.0%, respectively, are comparable in magnitude to the production and consumption changes in ID, -11.8% and +8.9%, respectively. These changes are approximately additive in IC, where the increase in cereal consumption in ID is offset by the decrease in CC, resulting in a con- sumption change of -1.8% in IC (Fig 4c). Additional climate change impacts on crop produc- tion are included in SI (S3 Fig in S1 File). 3.3.2 Cereal prices under scenarios. Regional prices of cereal crops, defined as the

weighted average of domestic and imported prices including the subsidy price (cereal domestic production credit price paid for consumption), rise in regions with RF CIDR>0% (Western Fig 3. Changes of cereal import and export (Mt) in ID compared to RF in 2050. Note that half of the circle is the global traded market pool, labeled “World”. Arrows that go to “World” indicate changes of cereal export from regions. Arrows that originate from “World” indicate changes of cereal import to regions. Top 7 affected regions in terms of changes in cereal trade quantity (Δ import + Δ export) are shown for visualization clarity. The other 25 regions are aggregated into “Other regions”. The color indicates increase or decrease of import or export quantity. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291577.g003 PLOS ONE Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291577 September 15, 2023 8 / 18