Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts

decrease (Fig 2b). In 2050 the decrease of global cereal consumption in CC is about 3.5% compared to RF, close to the impact of ID. The combined impact of the import dependency constraint and climate change (IC) on global cereal consumption is roughly additive at 7.5%. The import dependency constraint decreases global land allocated to cereal crops by 3.6% on average (Fig 2c). Climate change impacts on yields are negative at a global level, resulting in increased land allocation to cereal crops in CC and IC, relative to RF and ID, respectively (Fig 2c). Fig 1. (a) Global map of cereal import dependency ratio (CIDR) across GCAM regions in the model base year of 2015, and (b) the domestic cereal production versus the domestic cereal consumption in million tons (Mt) in 2015, with a 45-degree line indicating a slope of one (where CIDR equals zero) (c) shows a zoom-in portion of (b), as framed in a box. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291577.g001 PLOS ONE Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291577 September 15, 2023 6 / 18