Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections

compiled occurrence data (Table 5 and Fig 1). In addition, a refuge area was projected southwest of the Caspian Sea including the southwestern Caspian coastal area and coastal mountains (Fig 3, for additional algorithms see S1–S10 Figs). The proportion of species presence in the RF MIROC-ESM projections from different scenarios is shown in Table 5. According to the table, the proportion of presence cells is 1.49% in the optimistic, 0.95% in the moderate, and 0.42% in the pessimistic climate scenario. Details of the spatial changes are shown in Fig 3. Table 4. Palaeobotanical records for the LGM and MH [58–81]. Country Locality/site LGM MH Pollen record Fagus presence Bulgaria Black Sea Core GGC-18 No data Present 12 ka Cont. since 11 ka Bulgaria Varna Lake/Core 3 No data Present 8 ka Continuous Bulgaria W Black Sea No data Present 12 ka Increase at c. 7 ka Greece Lesbos/Megali Limni 01 Absent Absent 62–22 ka Present at c. 32 ka, LDD NW Turkey Marmaris/MAR94-5 Present Hiatus 30 ka Continuous NW Turkey Marmaris/Core MD01-2430 Present Present 23 ka Continuous NW Turkey Marmaris/MAR98-12 No data Present c. 17 ka Peak at HM NW Turkey Marmaris/MAR98-13 No data Present c. 18 ka Peak at HM NW Turkey Black Sea/Core B-7 No data Present c. 12 ka Peak at HM NC Turkey Yenic¸ağa, Bolu No data Present c. 12 ka Increase since c. 7 ka NC Turkey Abant Go¨lu¨, Bolu No data Present c. 10 ka Increase since c. 10 ka NC Turkey Black Sea/Core 22-GC3 Present, LDD Present 18 ka Cont., rapid increase at 8.5 ka

NC Turkey Black Sea/Core 22-GC3/8 No data No data 134–119 ka Cont., rapid increase at 126 ka NC Turkey Black Sea/Core 25-GC1 Present No data 63–19 ka No specific information C Turkey Cappadocica/Eski Acıgo¨l I, II No data Present, LDD 15.6 ka Sporadic, LDD SE Turkey So¨ğu¨tlu¨, Van No data Absent 7 ka Sporadic since c. 5 ka, LDD SE Turkey Lake Van/Core 90–04 No data Present, LDD 12 ka Sporadic since 10 ka, LDD Georgia Sukhumi/ Core no 723 No data Present c. 10 ka Continuous Georgia Sukhumi/Dziguta Core 1 Present, LDD No data 48–9 ka Increase at c. 13 ka Georgia NE Black Sea/Core Ak-2575 No data Present 10 ka Continuous Georgia E Black Sea/Gagra, Core no 471 No data Present 10 ka Continuous Georgia Various sites Present No data 18±2 ka No information Iran Lake Urmia Absent Absent 200 ka Absent Iran Caspian Sea/Core CP14 No data Present 5 ka Continuous Iran Caspian Sea/Core GS18 No data Present, LDD 12–2 ka Cont. low, LDD Iran Caspian Sea/Core GS05 No data Present, LDD 15 ka Sporadic since c. 9 ka, LDD NE Iran Kongor Lake No data Present, LDD 6 ka Discont. low, LDD https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242280.t004 PLOS ONE Species distribution modeling of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242280 November 17, 2020 8 / 19