The climatic risk of Amazonian protected areas is driven by climate velocity until 2050

taxonomic groups studied so far [45]. Our results are in line with previously projected climate velocities, however, our projections also reveal the types and magnitudes of particular threats within the Amazon, especially with respect to PAs and ILs. The potential impacts of both forwards and backwards velocities will be greater on ILs than on PAs. This means that species within ILs, rather than PAS, will be further away from their climate analogs by 2050, and will therefore have to migrate at higher annual velocities, whilst their former climatic envelopes will not become suitable for other colonizing species. Given the correlation between velocities based on analogs and geographic characteristics [37], we suggest that this pattern is the result of the arrangement between the distribution of climatic velocities and the spatial arrangement of the ILs. However, further studies are needed to iden- tify which spatial features determine this pattern. The same striking pattern of backward velocity risk can be seen in the spatial extent of areas without analogous climates. There is a large distribution of novel climates throughout the cen- tral region of the Amazon, making this area unsuitable as a habitat for species that cannot acclimate or adapt, and thus, indicating potential effects on the ecosystem functions and ser- vices of floodplain forests [46]. In contrast, few areas have been identified as disappearing cli- mates. The majority of areas with novel and/or disappearing climates are in UAs, however,

within the PA and IL network, most novel/disappearing climates are spatially distributed in PAs. Nevertheless, it is important to note that when considering PAs and ILs who’s entire ter- ritory will be without a climate analog across Amazonia by 2050, ILs are the majority, reinforc- ing the pattern of high climate risk found in IL’s. Based on spatial distribution of forward and backward climate velocities at the cell level, our results show that the backward velocity is gradually distributed from values with lower speeds in some parts of high elevation areas towards the edges of Amazonia, becoming higher in the lowland interiors. In central Amazonia, along the entire floodplain region of the Ama- zon River, there is a large extension of climatic conditions that are not analogous to the histori- cal variability of the rest of the biome. The forward velocity is higher along a diagonal extending from the central-western region to the southeastern region, but presents some higher velocity hotspots in parts of eastern Amazon. Under the assumption that species are unable to acclimate/adapt to changing climate [16], these results are a cause for concern, given the significant role of PAs, and especially ILs, on forest conservation, which reduces forest carbon emissions and contributes to climate change mitigation [47]. Many studies have shown that Amazonian PAs and ILs act as buffers for the advance of the deforestation frontier, reducing deforestation [11], degradation [46] and fire occurrence [48]. These results imply that despite the important role of Pas and ILs in contain-

ing changes in land use and cover, they are not immune to climate change, and therefore, cli- mate adaptation measures are needed to increase their resilience. Adaptive management strategies [49] can be applied in view of the impacts on the distribu- tion of species projected by the climate velocity metric. In areas with high forward velocity, cli- mate adaptation strategies are recommended, and in extreme cases, assisted migration [21, 50]. Conservation strategies that prioritize the protection and connectivity of climatically het- erogeneous landscapes are also suggested, either through the expansion of existing reserves or the creation of new corridors that facilitate movement in response to climate change [51]. In areas with high backward velocity, intervention through assisted migration is indicated, either in the context of conservation of species with restricted distributions or on a large scale, such as movement of populations of widely distributed species in regular reforestation operations [52]. Actions focused on monitoring invasive alien species that may occupy empty niches may also be necessary [21]. PLOS ONE Amazonian protected areas and climate velocity PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457 June 22, 2023 9 / 14