The climatic risk of Amazonian protected areas is driven by climate velocity until 2050

consider the large number of PAs and ILs with low forward velocities (31.3%), in relation to backward (16.3%) (as defined by the quantile with the lowest values within a range of velocities previously divided into three equal areas). In addition, a higher percentage of PAs and ILs experience low forward and backward combined velocities (11.4%) than high combined veloc- ities (3.1%). However, the smaller number of PAs classified with high velocities may underesti- mate the real threat to which these areas will be subjected to (Fig 3). Discussion When comparing climate velocities across Amazonia we find that the network of PAs and ILs will be less at risk to the impacts of backward velocity compared to UAs, emphasizing the importance of these areas as tools in conservation. In contrast, for forward velocity impacts, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than UAs–indicating that the current spatial arrangement of the PAs and ILs network is still not optimal for minimizing the impacts of cli- mate redistribution. Despite this difference, both PAs, ILs and UAs will be exposed to high rates of climatic velocity, particularly in terms of backward velocity, which will cause greater effects in magnitude considering a median value across the entire Amazon. Previous studies have already classified Amazonia as having a high risk of developing new climatic conditions [3], developing greater distances between current and future (2100) equivalent temperatures [28] and high forward and backward velocities [20]. These projections are much greater than

the median latitudinal migration rate of 1.69 km/year observed in most ecosystems and Fig 3. Velocity-based climatic risk assessment of each protected area within the Amazon biome. We assessed the velocity-based climatic risk of each PA within the Amazon based on nine categories derived from the classification of the gradient of values of forward and backward velocities in three equal quantiles of area (in the up-right panel). No-analog PAs and ILs are indicated in black and are not included in the bivariate panel. In (c) we see the biogeographic boundary of the Amazon with PAs in black and ILs in grey. Map source: Amazon biogeographical limit [9]; protected areas and indigenous land [30]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457.g003 PLOS ONE Amazonian protected areas and climate velocity PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457 June 22, 2023 8 / 14