The climatic risk of Amazonian protected areas is driven by climate velocity until 2050

was higher than that of PAs. The median forward velocity in PAs is 7 km/year, while in ILs it reaches 13 km/year. The backward velocity is higher for both categories, being 7.8 km/year in PAs and 12.8 km/year in ILs. If we consider the presence of no-analog climates (Table 1), our results show that approxi- mately one third (33.5%) of the PAs and ILs do not have a climatic analog in any of the metrics, and 33% of them are due to new climates (no-analog for backward velocities) and 0.5% are for disappearing climates (no-analog for forward velocities). The PAs also varied in relation to the presence of no-analog climates at the cell scale (Fig 2). About 3.2% of the PAs presented at least one cell that did not have a climatic analogs with respect to forward velocity, and almost 45% of the PAs with respect to backward velocity. The velocity-based climatic risk assessment shows that the extent of areas with high back- ward-only velocity (32.4%) is greater than that of forward (5.85%). This trend stands out if we Table 1. Spatial extent and cover percent of disappearing and novel climates in unprotected areas, protected areas and indigenous lands. Protection category Climatic risk Cover across Amazon (%) Area (km2) UAs Disappearing 0.29 20677.66 UAs Novel 25.44 1774348.06 PAs and ILs Disappearing 0.15 10702.90 PAs and ILs Novel 17.70 1235069.07 PAs Disappearing 0.1522 10617.44 PAs Novel 11.96 834745.27 ILs Disappearing 0.0073 515.73 ILs Novel 6.26 436616.21 Amazon (all area) - 100 6974270.54 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457.t001

Fig 2. Spatial distribution of forward and backward climate velocities at the cell level. Map source: Amazon biogeographical limit [9]; protected areas and indigenous land [35]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457.g002 PLOS ONE Amazonian protected areas and climate velocity PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457 June 22, 2023 7 / 14