The climatic risk of Amazonian protected areas is driven by climate velocity until 2050

However, comparative analyzes such as those carried out in this work (UAs vs PAs; ITs vs PNAs) are not without limitations. For example, they can mask the real risk that different areas will be subjected to in terms of actual climate velocity values. In our analysis, exposure to moderate and low velocities means a spectrum of 0–13 km/year on forward velocity and 0–21 km/year for backward velocity, as defined by the classes using quantile method. In previous research, PAs in North America were classified as having high climate velocity when they obtained values above 10 km/year [53]. Therefore, here, even the classification of moderate velocities, depending on the dispersion capacity and sensitivity of the species, may indicate high risk. In the same way, whilst the backward velocity for PAs revealed a lower median value than that of UAs, this value was still 12 km/year, which may imply severe threats to some species. Finally, it should be noted that this work does not take into account the potential influences of changes in land use and cover on species dispersion. However, deforestation and degrada- tion can influence the dispersion of species, both via the formation of barriers that restrict the movement of species between analogous climates [31], as well as potentiating the effects of cli- mate change on local [54], regional [55] and global scales [56]. Also, while any environmental variable can be utilized to calculate climate velocity, temperature is the most commonly used

variable in research studies, as it has a significant influence on species distribution at the land- scape level. The bioclimatic variables mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation were selected as they represent biologically relevant trends on species distributions. However, it should be also noted that while annual mean values are better suited for predicting changes across the entire range of a species, extreme temperature values are appropriate for predicting a species’ tolerance limits, which represents a promising approach for future studies [21]. The methodological limitations inherent to analyzes based on climate change metrics and the degree of uncertainty of climate projections, both of which are extensively debated should also be kept in mind [57, 58]. Conclusion The effects of backward velocity will be greater in magnitude considering the median across the entire Amazon biome. This striking pattern of backward velocity occurs both for climatic conditions with and without future analogs, with emphasis on a large expanse of no-analogs across central Amazonia. This indicates that high temperatures and changes in precipitation will exceed the historical variability that occurs in the biome, which may have effects on eco- system functioning and services of floodplain forests. Despite this, the network of Protected Areas will be less exposed to the impacts of the backward velocity than unprotected areas emphasizing the importance of these areas as a tool in conservation. In contrast, for forward

velocity impacts, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than unprotected areas indicat- ing that the current spatial arrangement of the PA network is still not the most suitable for minimizing the impacts of climate redistribution. Furthermore, at both velocities, the potential impacts will be greater on ILs than on PAs. However, risks to PAs should also be emphasized as the range of no-analogs is greater in this land category. Therefore, despite the important role of PAs in reducing land use changes, they are not immune to the effects of climate change, and new management strategies, specific to each area and that allow adaptation to global changes, will be necessary. Despite the methodological limitations inherent to analyzes based on climate change metrics [57], it is urgent to refine information about the effect of global changes on biota in the tropics, With the input provided here, we hope to further improve our abilities to identify the different needs for adaptive management of PAs in the face of climate PLOS ONE Amazonian protected areas and climate velocity PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286457 June 22, 2023 10 / 14