Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi considering climate change and irrigation

Fig 1. Modelled global climate suitability for Aleurocanthus woglumi under a historical climate scenario, represented by a composite of natural rainfall and irrigation scenarios based on irrigation areas identified by Siebert et al. [64]. The Ecoclimatic Index (EI) describes the overall climate suitability for population persistence, where 0 is unsuitable and 100 is year-round optimal conditions. Black dots indicate location records for A. woglumi (S1A Table) and black polygons the administrative areas where A. woglumi has been reported (S1B Table). This map was produced by the authors using ArcGIS Pro 2.7.1 software (@esri.com; no copyrighted material was used). Global irrigation areas [64] are used herein under a CC BY 4.0 license, with permission from Stefan Siebert, original copyright 2013. Boundary data for the countries of the world come from Natural Earth (@naturalearthdata.com; public domain) [65], and provincial/regional boundary data from geoBoundaries (@geoboundaries.org) [66]. GeoBoundaries are used herein under a CC BY 4.0 license, with permission from Daniel Runfola, original copyright 2020. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261626.g001 Table 2. Projected land area (millions km2) with EI>0 for Aleurocanthus woglumi under the natural rainfall (under current climate), irrigation (natural rainfall topped up to 4.5 mm day-1 on irrigable land under current climate), and climate change (using the RCP8.5 ACCESS 1–0 model) scenarios. Percent changes caused

by irrigation and climate change relative to the natural rainfall and the irrigation scenarios are also shown. Land area projected with EI>0 Change in areas projected with EI>0 Continent Natural Rainfall Scenario Irrigation Scenario Climate Change (Natural Rainfall Scenario) Climate Change (Irrigation Scenario) Irrigation Change Climate Change (Natural Rainfall Scenario) Climate Change (Irrigation Scenario) million km2 % Africa 12.84 16.40 12.10 16.09 27.73 -5.76 -1.89 Asia 7.88 12.03 9.16 13.31 52.66 16.24 10.64 Europe 0.27 0.31 0.57 0.59 14.81 111.11 90.32 North America 3.50 4.38 3.77 5.02 25.14 7.71 14.61 South America 14.84 15.18 14.72 15.35 2.29 -0.81 1.12 Oceania 2.95 2.93 2.70 3.00 -0.68 -8.47 2.39 Data source: Global irrigation areas [64] are used herein under a CC BY 4.0 license, with permission from Stefan Siebert, original copyright 2013. Boundary data for the countries of the world come from Natural Earth (@naturalearthdata.com; public domain) [65]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261626.t002 PLOS ONE Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261626 December 20, 2021 8 / 18