Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi considering climate change and irrigation

analyses (PRA) are fundamental tools for managing global plant biosecurity [18,19]. Pest risk maps give information regarding the potential spatial distribution of invasive species support- ing strategic decisions concerning strategies to mitigate or ameliorate risks [20,21]. Climatic changes are expected to affect the distribution and abundance patterns of many species, with potential range expansions into cooler areas and contractions from warmer, drier areas [22,23]. Climate change is no longer a theoretical factor influencing pest risks, with compelling evidence of changes in pest risk attributable to recent changes in climate [24]. It is therefore prudent to consider the emerging effects of climate change when assessing pest risks and potential biosecurity policies, regulatory measures, and other actions to mitigate these risks. The citrus blackfly, Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is an impor- tant whitefly pest in several countries [25,26], and can infest more than 300 host plants, includ- ing cultivated plants, ornamentals and weeds of which citrus is a favoured host [26]. Direct damage by A. woglumi is caused by continuous sucking of leaf sap [27], whereas indirect dam- age is associated with the development of a sooty mold (Capnodium sp.) causing negative physiological changes to plants [28]. Physiological changes caused by these direct and indirect effects decelerate plant growth and reduce the quality, size and number of fruits [27]. In Mexico and Florida, short-term (< 1 year) infestations were found to reduce fruit production

by up to 50%, and longer-term infestations frequently resulted in almost complete loss of pro- duction. In Pakistan, losses due to A. woglumi infestations have been estimated at 5 to 10% with occasional losses as high as 50 to 60% [29]. In severe infestations, yield in citriculture can be reduced by 80% [27]. Climatic variables, especially temperature and rainfall, are important factors affecting the infestation potential of A. woglumi [28]. In tropical environments, all life stages of A. woglumi may be found throughout the year, but reproduction ceases during cold periods [30]. Females favour oviposition sites in tree canopies with high humidity because the latter influences egg hatch and nymph survival [28,31]. Each female may lay more than 100 eggs in a characteristic spiral pattern on the underside of young leaves in batches (average 38) [32]. Depending on environmental conditions, the life cycle takes 2–4 months to complete, and there are up to six generations annually. Development times of different stages are as follows: egg 11–20 days; three larval instars 7–16, 5–30 and 6–20 days, respectively; pupa 16–80 days; adult lifespan probably 6–12 days [30,33]. Aleurocanthus woglumi was first detected in India in 1910, and in 1915 it was reported in other parts of Asia [34]. In India it is established in Amravati, Nagpur and Wardha districts of Maharastra as a pest of citrus. In the Western Hemisphere, A. woglumi was first recorded in Jamaica in 1913 and from Jamaica it spread rapidly throughout the Caribbean region into

Central America (Cuba, Panama, Costa Rica, Bahamas, Haiti) [29,34]. It was also recorded in Mexico where it may have been introduced on shipments of mango cuttings from India or from boats from Central America. By 1940 it had become a serious threat to citrus in Mexico [35]. Introductions to the United States have occurred several times. Aleurocanthus woglumi was recorded in Florida (1934) where it is now widespread throughout the north-central and southern parts of the state, and Texas (1955), where it was eradicated but later became estab- lished [29,35,36]. In Brazil, A. woglumi was first detected in 2001, in Bele´m, Para´ state in the north, then soon became widespread in the country [37–39]. Aleurocanthus woglumi was also discovered near Durban, South Africa in January 1959, and was established in and around Durban on the Natal coast [40]. It is presently unknown from Europe and the Mediterranean Basin [41]. Host plants for planting and host cut flowers or branches have been identified as the main pathways for entry into new countries [30]. Biosecurity agencies are interested to know the potential distribution of A. woglumi, as a means of understanding and better managing the pests risks it poses. EFSA used the Ko¨ppen- PLOS ONE Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261626 December 20, 2021 2 / 18