Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi considering climate change and irrigation

In Asia, the model projects an overall moderate expansion in the potential range of A. woglumi (Figs 2B, S3A and S3B). In the Northern Hemisphere, especially in China, the poten- tial range expands northward, although the expansion in India is limited because the present range is bounded by the foothills of the Himalayas. The short-term climate forecasts are insuf- ficient to shift the range appreciably into this mountainous area. In South Korea and Japan, there is potential for future expansion in southern coastal areas. According to the future climate scenario, winter minimum temperatures generally are expected to rise disproportionately faster in the northern latitudes [68–70]. In North America, the potential range of areas with EI>0 expands northward as depicted in Figs 2B, S4A and S4B. As a result, many southern states of the USA will likely become favorable for A. woglumi, Fig 2. Α) Modelled global climate suitability for Aleurocanthus woglumi after the RCP8.5 ACCESS 1–0 model was applied for years 2040–2059, as a composite of natural rainfall and irrigation scenarios based on irrigation areas identified by Siebert et al. [64]. B) Forecast qualitative variation of ecoclimatic suitability between historical climate (Fig 1) and 2050 projected climate (Fig 2A) highlighting the expansion (current EI = 0, future EI>0) and contraction (current EI>0, future EI = 0) of suitable areas for the 2050 projection. The Ecoclimatic Index (EI) describes the overall climate suitability for population persistence, where 0 is unsuitable and 100 is year-round

optimal conditions. This map was produced by the authors using ArcGIS Pro 2.7.1 software (@esri.com; no copyrighted material was used). Global irrigation areas [64] are used herein under a CC BY 4.0 license, with permission from Stefan Siebert, original copyright 2013. Boundary data for the countries of the world come from Natural Earth (@naturalearthdata.com; public domain) [65]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261626.g002 PLOS ONE Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261626 December 20, 2021 10 / 18