Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 9 / 14 According to the response curve between environmental variables and presence probability, the suitable range of environmental variables for the distribution of Ae. albopictus can be determined. When the value of the mean temperature of coldest quarter was higher than −3.21°C, it was suitable for the distribution of Ae. albopictus. When the value of annual mean temperature was in the range of 8.34°C-13.06°C, with the increase in temperature, the predicted distribution prob- ability increased, and decreased rapidly when the temperature was higher than 27.41°C. When the value of the annual precipitation was lower than 266.57 mm, the presence probability of Ae. albopictus was lower than 0.33, and the probabil- ity gradually increased with the precipitation (Fig 8). 4 Discussion The global climate is changing rapidly, and the suitable areas for Ae. albopictus are also changing. Timely update is of great significance for the prevention and control of Ae. albopictus with the change of climate. This study collected the latest comprehensive monitoring data of Ae. albopictus in the world, predicted its geographical distribution range in China by Biomod2, and estimated the impact of climate change on its distribution under the SSPs scenarios. By comparing the prediction results of each individual model with the actual distribution of Aedes albopictus, as well as the AUC and TSS values, it was found that the RF, GBM, MaxEnt, GLM, CTA all achieved better results. The prediction accuracy of

the ensemble model was significantly improved compared with the 10 individual models. The AUC value and TSS value increased by 7.4% and 19.8% respectively compared with the RF,. At the same time, the ensemble model also solved the problem that some species distribution models did not have high accuracy in describing the details of species’ suitability Fig 7. Percent contribution and permutation importance of environmental variables. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g007