Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 8 / 14 would decrease from 143.39 × 104 km2 (current) to 121.57 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−15.2%) and 120.66 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−15.9%). The area of the lowly suitability region was projected to decrease from 47.12 × 104 km2 (current) to 45.24 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−4%) and 43.95 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−6.7%) (Figs 4 and 5). 3.4 Centroid migrations of suitability regions under climate change scenarios Under SSP1–2.6 scenario, the centroid of the total suitability region was projected to shift southeast from 110.94°E/28.61°N (current) to 111.01°E/28.59°N (2050s) by 6.63 km, and then northwest by 5.99 km to 110.95°E/28.6°N (2090s) (Fig 6). Overall, from current to 2090s, the centroid was expected to migrate 1.44 km southeast. Under SSP2– 4.5, the centroid was anticipated to migrate southeast from 110.94°E/28.61°N (current) to 111.01°E/28.53°N (2050s) by 10.74 km, and then northeast by 15.13 km to 111.06°E/28.67°N (2090s) (Fig 6). From current to 2090s, the cen- troid was expected to migrate 13.46 km northeast. Under SSP3–7.0, the centroid was expected to migrate southeast from 110.94°E/28.61°N (current) to 111.01°E/28.51°N (2050s) by 12.29 km, and then further southeast by 5.04 km to 111.07°E/28.52°N (2090s) (Fig 6). From current to 2090s, the centroid was projected to migrate 15.78 km southeast. Under SSP5–8.5, the centroid was predicted to migrate southeast from 110.94°E/28.61°N (current) to 111.05°E/28.54°N

(2050s) by 12.87 km, and then northeast by 5.87 km to 111.07°E/28.59°N (2090s) (Fig 6). Overall, from current to 2090s, the centroid was expected to migrate 13.31 km southeast. 3.5 Environmental variables For Ae. albopictus, the top three variables with the higher percent contribution rate were the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11, 54.12%), the annual precipitation (bio12, 22.76%) and the precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19, 13.47%). From the perspective of permutation importance, the top four variables were the annual mean temperature (bio1, 44.77%), the annual precipitation (bio12, 18.09%), the isothermality (bio3, 13.46) and the min temperature of coldest month (bio6, 13.01%) (Fig 7). Fig 6. Centroid migrations of suitability regions under climate change scenarios. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g006