Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 7 / 14 Under SSP3–7.0 scenario, the area of highly suitability regions was predicted to decrease from 121.77 × 104 km2 (current) to 91.36 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−25%) and 106.49 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−12.6%). The area of moderately suitability regions would increase from 143.39 × 104 km2 (current) to 167.88 × 104 km2 (2050s) (+17.1%) and 151.36 × 104 km2 (2090s) (+5.6%). The area of lowly suitability regions was expected to decrease from 47.12 × 104 km2 (current) to 44.1 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−6.4%) and 46.62 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−1.1%) (Figs 4 and 5). Under SSP5–8.5, the area of highly suitability region was expected to increase from 121.77 × 104 km2 (current) to 138.05 × 104 km2 (2050s) (+13.4%) and 140.05 × 104 km2 (2090s) (+15%). The area of the moderately suitability region Fig 4. Potential suitability region of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios. (A) SSP1-2.6 in 2050s; (B) SSP2-4.5 in 2050s; (C) SSP3-7.0 in 2050s; (D) SSP5-8.5 in 2050s; (E) SSP1-2.6 in 2090s; (F) SSP2-4.5 in 2090s; (G) SSP3-7.0 in 2090s; (H) SSP5-8.5 in 2090s. The boundary was obtained from Natural Earth (http://www.naturalearthdata.com/). Based on the principle of national and territorial integrity, we have modi- fied and adjusted the vector boundary. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g004 Fig 5. Statistics of changes in suitability regions. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g005