Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 6 / 14 Anhui, Sichuan, Hubei, Chongqing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Fujian, Guangxi, Taiwan, and Hainan also contained moderately suitability regions, with areas ranging from 0.11 × 104 km2 to 24.94 × 104 km2. although these regions are not the most ideal for Ae. albopictus, they still pose a risk for the establishment and proliferation of its populations (Fig 3). 3.3 Changes in spatial distribution patterns of the suitability regions under climate change scenarios Fig 4 illustrated that the distribution of suitability regions varies greatly under different scenarios. For instance, under SSP1–2.6 scenario in 2050s, both highly and moderately suitability regions showed a significant expansion. The expanded highly suitability regions were located in central Guangxi, northern Guangdong and central Fujian, while the expanded moderately suitability regions were observed in Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Eastern Sichuan and Western Chongqing. On the contrary, under SSP3–7.0 scenario, a substantial portion of the highly suitability regions in Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian were projected to transition to moderately. Under SSP1–2.6 scenario, the area of highly suitability regions was projected to initially increase from 121.77 × 104 km2 (current) to 142.76 × 104 km2 (2050s) (+17.2%) and then decrease to 101.33 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−16.8%). The area of moderately suitability regions was expected to first decrease from 143.39 × 104 km2 (current) to 120.65 × 104 km2 (2050s)

(−15.9%) and then increase to 162.19 × 104 km2 (2090s) (+13.1%). The area of lowly suitability regions would initially decrease from 47.12 × 104 km2 (current) to 42.09 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−10.7%) and then increase to 70.03 × 104 km2 (2090s) (+48.6%) (Figs 4 and 5). Under SSP2–4.5 scenario, the area of highly suitability regions was anticipated to increase from 121.77 × 104 km2 (current) to 129.41 × 104 km2 (2050s) (+6.3%) and 133.02 × 104 km2 (2090s) (+9.2%). The area of moderately suitability regions would decrease from 143.39 × 104 km2 (current) to 130.11 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−9.3%) and 131.22 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−8.5%). The area of the lowly suitability region was expected to decrease from 47.12 × 104 km2 (current) to 46.68 × 104 km2 (2050s) (−0.9%) and 45.86 × 104 km2 (2090s) (−2.7%) (Figs 4 and 5). Fig 3. Suitability region of Aedes albopictus in China under current climate situation. The boundary was obtained from Natural Earth (http://www. naturalearthdata.com/). Based on the principle of national and territorial integrity, we have modified and adjusted the vector boundary. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g003