Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 3 / 14 vector-borne diseases. A high-humidity environment is conducive to the development of mosquito adults, which live longer in such conditions, increasing the chances of blood feeding and disease transmission [16,17]. Adult Ae. albopictus prefer dark and sheltered resting locations, with peak blood-feeding activity occurring during early morning and late afternoon. Precipitation provides the water sources needed for mosquito breeding, and areas with standing water become hotspots for mosquito reproduction and high-risk areas for disease transmission [18–20]. However, it should be noted that in many small breeding sites, the water does not come from rain but from human activity, especially in places with low rainfall. Therefore, the rainfall variable may not work well in models developed for dry areas/ecosystems. As a container-breeding species, Ae. albopictus thrives in artificial and natural water-holding habitats, making rainfall patterns a key determinant of its distribution [3,12]. Wind speed and air pressure changes directly affect the flying ability and range of mosquitoes. Changes in wind speed can affect their frequency of contact with hosts [21]. Additionally, the transmission capacity of Ae. albopictus is influenced by both its biological traits and environmental factors. Susceptibility to dengue virus varies among geographic strains, potentially due to differences in virus titer, serotype, virulence, and local climatic conditions. Thus, the

interaction between mosquito ecology and environmental variables ultimately shapes disease transmission risks. Based on the R software, the Biomod2 is well-known and widely used due to its inclusion of 10 commonly used species distribution models and its free and open accessibility, making it the most mature multi-model platform to date [22–25]. This study applies Biomod2 to simulate the geographical distribution of Ae. albopictus in China under future climate change scenarios, with the aim of providing a basis for relevant departments to formulate effective monitoring measures and reasonable control methods. 2 Materials and methods 2.1 Distribution data of Aedes albopictus The distribution data of Ae. albopictus mainly come from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database, the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Web of Science, PubMed, Medline, and other online database publications of relevant literature. ENMTools was used to proofread and screen the obtained distribution points, excluding the impact of overfitting simulation caused by high spatial correlation [26–29], and a total of 10963 points were obtained (Fig 1). Fig 1. Distribution data of Ae. albopictus in the world. The boundary was obtained from Natural Earth (http://www.naturalearthdata.com/). Based on the principle of national and territorial integrity, we have modified and adjusted the vector boundary. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g001