Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 2 / 14 establishes Ae. albopictus as the primary vector for dengue fever in most regions of the country, with its ecological adaptability enabling colonization of both urban and rural habitats. Spatiotemporal analyses of dengue outbreaks from 2005 to 2017 revealed significant clustering in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces, where environ- mental factors such as annual minimum temperature and precipitation synergistically drive transmission risks [1,2]. Over the past three decades, China has witnessed a marked expansion of dengue-affected areas, from southern coastal regions to central provinces like Henan, driven by climate warming, urbanization, and increased human mobility [4]. Notably, imported cases from Southeast Asia—accounting for 70.8% of international introductions—have repeatedly triggered local epidemics, highlighting the vulnerability of regions with established mosquito populations [4]. Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, Zika virus, and yellow fever, pose significant threats to global public health [5]. The spread of these diseases is influenced by a variety of factors [6], among which meteorological elements play a crucial role [7]. Meteorologi- cal elements include temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and air pres- sure, which directly or indirectly affect the ecological habits of mosquitoes, life cycles, and the survival and transmission capabilities of pathogens [5,7]. Climate change

significantly impacts mosquito vector distribution and activity. Studies show that tem- perature and precipitation are key determinants of mosquito population dynamics and disease transmission. For example, Lu et al. developed a Species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) to assess dengue transmission risk in Guangdong, linking higher SCI values for Aedes aegypti to increased transmission [8]. Similarly, Feng et al. emphasized the role of interdisciplinary collaboration under the One Health framework in predicting dengue outbreaks [9]. The One Health approach, which recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health sys- tems, provides a critical framework for addressing vector-borne disease challenges under climate change. This paradigm emphasizes integrated surveillance of climatic variables, vector ecology, and human population dynamics – elements particularly relevant to Ae. albopictus’ range expansion. By bridging epidemiological models with ecological projections, One Health strategies can optimize early warning systems and coordinate interventions across public health, urban planning, and environmental management sectors [10]. Globally, Laporta et al. projected shifts in Aedes species distribution under climate change, indicating potential expansion into temperate regions [11]. These insights highlight the need for adaptive strategies to address dengue risks in China. Temperature is one of the key factors influencing the spread of vector-borne diseases. The development, reproduction, and activity of mosquitoes are closely

related to ambient temperature [12,13]. Within an optimal temperature range, the breeding speed of mosquitoes accelerates, and the efficiency of viral replication increases, thereby raising the potential risk of disease transmission [14,15]. However, temperatures that are too high or too low can inhibit the growth of mosquitoes and the activity of the virus [16]. For Ae. albopictus, temperature is particularly critical for larval development, with warmer conditions typically shortening the aquatic life stage and promoting population expansion. Humidity also has a significant impact on