Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 12 / 14 TSS = 0.81), confirming its reliability in mapping the species’ ecological niche. Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable regions are concentrated in southern and eastern coastal provinces, with Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hunan identified as critical hotspots. By the 2050s and 2090s, climate-driven expansions or contractions of suitable areas were projected across all SSP scenarios, with notable southeastward centroid shifts under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5, and north- eastward shifts under SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0. These spatial dynamics reflect the species’ sensitivity to warmer winters (bio11), annual precipitation (bio12), and regional temperature gradients. The findings underscore that climate change will likely exacerbate dengue transmission risks in both historically endemic and newly suitable regions. Central Guangxi, northern Guangdong, and central Fujian are projected to face heightened suitability, necessitating prioritized surveillance and vector control. Conversely, provinces experiencing reduced suitability (e.g., parts of Guangxi under SSP3–7.0) may require adaptive strategies to address residual popula- tions in fragmented habitats. The study highlights the synergistic role of urbanization and human mobility in amplifying climate-driven range shifts, as observed in recent expansions to temperate zones. To mitigate future risks, climate-resilient public health policies must integrate dynamic distribution models, early warning

systems, and cross-sectoral collaboration under the One Health framework. Limitations include uncertainties in climate projections and localized anthropogenic factors (e.g., water storage practices), which warrant further investigation. Future research should refine models with finer-scale environmental data and validate predictions through longitudinal field mon- itoring. By aligning control strategies with these projections, China can enhance preparedness against the evolving threat of Ae. albopictus and dengue fever. Author contributions Conceptualization: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang. Data curation: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang. Formal analysis: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang, Zhenhan Mo. Investigation: Zhenhan Mo. Methodology: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang. Resources: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang. Software: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang. Supervision: Jianjun Xu, Rulin Wang, Han Zhang. Validation: Jianjun Xu, Han Zhang, Yujing Zhang. Visualization: Yujing Zhang. Writing – original draft: Jianjun Xu. Writing – review & editing: Jianjun Xu. References 1. Sun J, Lu L, Wu H, Yang J, Xu L, Sang S, et al. Epidemiological trends of dengue in mainland China, 2005-2015. Int J Infect Dis. 2017;57:86–91. 2. Sang S, Yin W, Bi P, Zhang H, Wang C, Liu X, et al. Predicting local dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China, through the influence of imported cases, mosquito density and climate variability. PLoS One. 2014;9(7):e102755. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102755 PMID: 25019967

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