Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 11 / 14 Temperature is a critical environmental factor that affects mosquitoes’ development and reproduction. Ae. albopictus, being ectothermic, relies on ambient temperature for metabolic processes. Studies show that 10–35°C is optimal for most mosquitoes, with larval development peaking at ~28°C and ceasing below 10°C [12,51–53]. Ding et al. (2018) identi- fied temperature suitability as the most influential factor in global Aedes distribution models, consistent with our variable importance analysis where the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) contributed 54.12% [41]. Liu et al. empha- sized that minimum winter temperatures above −3.21°C significantly enhance overwintering survival, which aligns with our variable importance analysis identifying cold quarter mean temperature (bio11) as the top contributor [54]. In this study, the importance of the variables was determined using the Jackknife test method, and the most important environmental variables affecting Ae. albopictus mainly included the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), the annual precip- itation (bio12) and the precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19). Li et al. [51] found that Ae. albopictus cannot complete generational development below 15 °C, but can develop normally at 20–35 °C, and the development cycle shortens with increasing temperature. Combining Fig 2, Ae. albopictus was concentrated in the southern, southwestern, southeastern, and central regions

of China. These regions were mostly characterized by subtropical monsoon climate (with an mean temperature of 0–15 °C in the coldest month and above 22 °C in the warmest month) and temperate monsoon climate (with an mean tem- perature below 0 °C in the coldest month and above 22 °C in the warmest month), which were suitable for mosquito reproduction and development [55]. Response curves showed that the suitable range of bio11 and bio1 was >−3.21°C and 8.34°C-13.06°C, respectively, which were consistent with the above climate characteristics. According to a study by Servadio et al., there is a significant parabolic association between maximum average monthly temperature and the risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in South and Southeast Asia, with outbreak risk peaking near 33.5°C [56]. This aligns with our findings, which highlight the importance of temperature in shaping the distribution and activity of Ae. albopictus. Similarly, Servadio et al. support the notion that climate change can lead to shifts in the geographic regions affected by vector-borne diseases rather than simple range expansions [56]. This underscores the need for adaptive public health strategies to address the changing patterns of disease transmission. A drop in air pressure often indicates the approach of adverse weather conditions, which can influence mosquito behavior and human outdoor activities, thereby affecting the dynamics of disease spread. Under the backdrop of cli- mate change, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes, brings new

challenges to the transmission patterns of vector-borne diseases. These extreme events may alter the distribution and behavior of mosquitoes, increasing the uncertainty and complexity of disease outbreaks. Studies have shown that envi- ronmental humidity can affect the growth and development of insects [57]. The tolerance to humidity was relatively high, and Ae. albopictus can develop normally at a relative humidity of 85–95% [58], and the distribution of Ae. albopictus was positively correlated with humidity [59]. He et al. [60] found that the survival time of female adult Ae. albopictus increases with humidity, and the humidity effect is more significant under low temperature conditions. In addition, humidity was one of the important factors in the search for breeding sites for Ae. albopictus. An increase in precipitation can expand the breeding area of Ae. albopictus larvae and form new breeding grounds, thereby expanding their distribution range. The conclusion of this study pointed out that when the annual precipitation was higher than 266.57 mm, it was suitable for the distribution of Ae. albopictus, which indicated that higher humidity was beneficial for Ae. albopictus. This was consistent with the findings of some earlier studies. Overall, precipitation and temperature together limit the distribution pattern of Ae. albopictus. 5 Conclusions This study employed an ensemble modeling approach to project the future geographical distribution of Ae. albopictus

in China under climate change scenarios. Key findings revealed significant shifts in habitat suitability, driven primarily by temperature and precipitation changes. The ensemble model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (ROC = 0.968,