Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 10 / 14 regions [35]. The above showed that the simulation of Aedes albopictus using the ensemble model is more accurate than individual models. Climate is the most important factor determining species distribution on the planet. Climate change influences the stability of ecological frameworks and the diversity of the organism population, and changes in the species distributions are the clearest and most direct indication of climate change [36–38]. Global warming may fundamentally alter the framework and functions of land ecological systems, leading to changes in the inhabitable areas of multiple species and probably the acceleration of diversity loss [39,40]. Recent studies, such as Ren and Xu [41], emphasize that imported dengue cases are the primary driver of local epidemics in China, with climatic suitability (e.g., temperature and humid- ity) modulating the spillover risk. This aligns with our findings that the centroid shifts of Ae. albopictus suitability regions under SSP scenarios reflect dynamic responses to temperature and precipitation changes. Historically, Ae. albopictus was thought to be confined to southern China below 22°N [42,43]. However, recent studies indicate that the distribution of Ae. albopictus has expanded significantly across China, extending to northern and western regions such as Beijing, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu due to factors such as climate change, urbanization, and human mobility [1]. Li et al.

highlighted that Ae. albopictus exhibits strong adaptability to urbanization, with construction land contributing 46.7% to its distribution model, suggesting synergistic effects between climate warming and anthropogenic landscapes in driv- ing range shifts [44]. The species has been detected in nearly one-third of Chinese provinces, with its range extending to temperate regions [4,45–47]. Referring to the method proposed by Yue et al. [48], we calculated the centroids of inhabitable regions to identify the migration at different periods and scenarios, which reflects the response of Aedes albopictus to climate change. The results showed that the centroids would move to the northeast by the 2090s, and the area of the total inhabitable regions would expand. This finding is consistent with Liu et al. [49], who reported a signif- icant northward expansion of Ae. albopictus in China, extending to provinces such as Beijing, Shanxi, and Shaanxi. Similarly, Wu et al. documented the species’ presence in previously unrecorded areas of Gansu and Shaanxi provinces, indicating a clear trend of range expansion driven by climate change [50]. However, discrepancies exist in the predicted extent of expansion. While our study projects a substantial increase in suitable areas under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, Liu et al. (2023) suggest a more gradual expansion, possibly due to differences in model inputs and climate projections [49]. Fig 8. Response curves between environmental variables and presence probability. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818.g008