Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0327818 August 6, 2025 1 / 14 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Xu J, Wang R, Mo Z, Zhang H, Zhang Y (2025) Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios. PLoS One 20(8): e0327818. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0327818 Editor: Himmat Singh, National Institute of Malaria Research, INDIA Received: December 4, 2024 Accepted: June 21, 2025 Published: August 6, 2025 Copyright: © 2025 Xu et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data availability statement: All occurrence data are available from Figshare at: https://dx. doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.27297882. Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. RESEARCH ARTICLE Future geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under climate change scenarios Jianjun Xu 1*, Rulin Wang2,3, Zhenhan Mo1, Han Zhang1, Yujing Zhang1 1 Department of Hospital - Acquired Infection Management, Chengdu Integrated TCM & Western Medicine Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China, 2 Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China, 3 Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China * c03021011@163.com Abstract

Amidst the escalating global threat of dengue fever, the distribution of its primary vector, Aedes albopictus, is undergoing significant shifts due to climate change. This study utilized Biomod2 to simulate the distribution changes of Ae. albopictus in China under future climate scenarios, providing critical insights for public health prepared- ness. Results showed that, the ensemble model achieved an ROC value of 0.968, a TSS value of 0.81, and a KAPPA value of 0.789, indicating high accuracy. Under current climate condition, the highly suitability regions were predominantly in the southern and eastern coastal areas of China. Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hunan pos- sessed the largest areas of highly suitability, measuring 15.61 × 104 km2, 20.84 × 104 km2 and 11.71 × 104 km2, respectively. Under SSP1–2.6 in the 2050s, highly suitabil- ity regions were projected to expand significantly, particularly in central Guangxi, northern Guangdong, and central Fujian. Centroids of the total suitability regions were predicted to shift southeast under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5, and northeast under SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0, reflecting the dynamic response of Ae. albopictus to climate change. These findings underscore the imperative for climate-adaptive strategies in public health policies to mitigate the risks of dengue fever transmission in China. 1 Introduction Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is widely distributed across China, spanning tropical to temperate zones from Hainan to Shenyang and Dalian in the north, Longx-

ian and Baoji in the west, and Tibet in the southwest [1,2]. Recent studies highlight its seasonal adaptability: winter distributions are confined to southern subtropical areas, while summer ranges extend to northeastern China and the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, driven by transient warm and humid conditions [3]. This extensive range