The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh

Crop production has a direct positive impact on TFR and an indirect impact on TFR through a negative impact on the infant mortality rate. And the infant mortality rate has a positive impact on the TFR. The maximum temperature has a significant direct negative effect, while maximum rainfall has a significant direct positive effect on the TFR. For example, if maximum temperature increases by one standard deviation of its mean values, the TFR will decrease by -0.02 standard deviation of its mean values; if maximum rainfall increases by one standard deviation, the TFR will increase by 0.032 standard deviations. Besides, GDP per capita has a negative effect on the infant mortality rate, thus reducing the TFR indirectly. The direct effect Fig 4. Annual average of mean temperature in Bangladesh for 1966–2015. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196.g004 Fig 5. Annual average of maximum rainfall in Bangladesh for 1966–2015. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196.g005 PLOS ONE Climate change, food security and fertility PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196 October 21, 2021 8 / 18