The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh

temperature has a significant negative impact on the change in TFR, with a coefficient of -0.074 for the first lagged year and -0.048 for the second lagged year. This means that if the maximum temperature increases by 1%, the TFR will decrease by approximately 0.074% one year later and by 0.048% two years later. Moreover, the change in the mean rainfall has a Table 2. Unit-root test. Variables Definition Z(t) 5% critical values ln(TFR) log of total fertility rate -4.079 -2.938 Δln(TFR) log of first difference of total fertility rate -4.319 -3.628 ln(GDP per capita) log of GDP per capita 1.202 -2.938 Δln(GDP per capita) log of fist difference of GDP per capita -3.080 -2.941 ln(maxtemp) log of maximum temperature -2.695 -2.938 Δln(maxtemp) log of first difference in maximum temperature -6.043 -2.941 ln(meantemp) log of mean temperature -3.523 -2.938 Δln(meantemp) log of first difference of mean temperature -6.060 -2.941 ln(maxrain) log of maximum rainfall -3.905 2.938 Δln(maxrain) log of first difference of maximum rainfall -6.124 -2.941 ln(meanrain) log of mean rainfall -3.844 -2.938 Δln(meanrain) log of first difference in mean rainfall -7.084 -2.941 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196.t002 Table 3. The result of ECM modelling. Model 1 Short term λ -0.007��� Δln(TFRt-1) 0.591��� Δln(TFRt-2) 0.349� Δln(maxtempt-1) -0.074��� Δln(maxtempt-2) -0.048�� Δln(meantempt-1) 0.036 Δln(meantempt-2) 0.058 Δln(maxraint-1) 0.007 Δln(maxraint-2) 0.003 Δln(meanraint-1) 0.010�� Δln(meanraint-2) 0.006 Δln(GDPPCt-1) 0.002

Δln(GDPPCt-2) -0.012� Error correction term (long term) ln(TFR) 1 ln(maxtemp) -7.39�� ln(meantemp) 10.784 ln(maxrain) 1.061 ln(meanrain) 1.290 ln(GDPPC) 0.499��� Note: the coefficients in the error correction term should be interpreted in the opposite direction. � p<0.05 �� p<0.01 ��� p<0.001. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196.t003 PLOS ONE Climate change, food security and fertility PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196 October 21, 2021 11 / 18