Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel

policies, which affect not only immigration into high income countries [36], but also return migration from these countries [37]. In our model, they are lumped together with other unob- served, country-specific variables in country-specific scaling factors. Implementing these dif- ferent dimensions of variation will be an important step in our future works for improving our analysis. Despite these limitations, our results for the first time provide a transparent and nuanced analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change on international migration via one specific channel: the impact on national economic productivity. Our results should be inter- preted as an exploratory step towards a more comprehensive and mechanistic approach of quantifying the impact of climate change on international migration, that should serve to inform future model development and data analysis in the field. Further research is needed for improving the understanding and modeling of the mechanisms driving international migra- tion, and the related pathways of climate change impacts on migration. Supporting information S1 File. Collection of data, tables and figures used as supporting information. (PDF) Author Contributions Conceptualization: Albano Rikani, Katja Frieler, Jacob Schewe. Data curation: Albano Rikani. Formal analysis: Albano Rikani. Funding acquisition: Katja Frieler, Jacob Schewe. Methodology: Albano Rikani. Project administration: Jacob Schewe. Resources: Katja Frieler. Supervision: Jacob Schewe. Validation: Albano Rikani. Visualization: Albano Rikani.

Writing – original draft: Albano Rikani, Katja Frieler, Jacob Schewe. References 1. Birkmann J, Liwenga E, Pandey R, Boyd E, Djalante R, Gemenne F, et al. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 8: Poverty, Livelihoods and Sus- tainable Development. Cambridge University Press; 2022. Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/. 2. Cisse´ G, McLeman R, Adams H, Aldunce P, Bowen K, Campbell-Lendrum D, et al. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 7: Health, Wellbeing, and the Changing Structure of Communities. Cambridge University Press; 2022. Available from: https://www. ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/. 3. Cattaneo C, Beine M, Fro¨ hlich CJ, Kniveton D, Martinez-Zarzoso I, Mastrorillo M, et al. Human Migra- tion in the Era of Climate Change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 2019; 13(2):189– 206. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez008 PLOS ONE Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276764 November 16, 2022 22 / 25