Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel

Fig 2. Migration-hump function and GDPc distribution for SSP5–8.5. The upper panel shows the emigration hump function for the T0 assumption (black line), as described in Eq 8, and its shifted version for the TS assumption (dashed line), as described by Eq 10. We show for one country its location on both these curves and its location when considering the CR assumption (blue dot). Grey area represents the extremes reached by the migration hump function when considering the parameter bG on its values at 66% confidence interval. The middle panel shows the population weighted GDPc distribution, for the baseline SSP5, for both climate change impact methods and for the CR assumption. Population and GDPc are averaged for the 30-years period of 3˚C global warming and over the climate models dimension. The bottom panel shows the same as the middle panel but for the number of countries instead of the population. When considering the constant emigration rate case (blue) we use the mean GDPc distribution for the historical period (1990–2015). We calculate bilateral migration flows using baseline and impacted GDPc trajectories under different scenarios, climate models and emigration rates assumptions. Flows cover a 30-years period (see Methods) and are then averaged on both, time and climate models dimension. For each scenario and emigration rate assumption we compare averaged migration flows produced using the impacted GDPc trajectory to those using the baseline GDPc. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276764.g002 PLOS ONE

Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276764 November 16, 2022 13 / 25