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The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

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mental Change. 2017 Jan 1; 42:251–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 20. Wise M, Calvin K, Kyle P, Luckow P, Edmonds J. Economic and physical modeling of land use in GCAM 3.0 and an application to agricultural productivity, land, and terrestrial carbon. Climate Change Economics. 2014 May 8; 5(02):1450003. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007814500031 21. Food and Agriculture Organization 2016 FAOSTAT Database (www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home) 22. Cui RY, Calvin K, Clarke L, Hejazi M, Kim S, Kyle P, et al. Regional responses to future, demand-driven water scarcity. Environmental Research Letters. 2018 Aug 31; 13(9):094006. https://doi.org/10.1088/ 1748-9326/aad8f7 23. Turner SW, Hejazi M, Calvin K, Kyle P, Kim S. A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater. Science of the total environment. 2019 Jul 10; 673:165–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070 PMID: 30986676 24. Graham NT, Hejazi MI, Chen M, Davies EG, Edmonds JA, Kim SH, et al. Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters. 2020 Jan 14; 15(1):014007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b 25. Liu J, Arndt C, Hertel TW. Parameter estimation and measures of fit in a global, general equilibrium model. Journal of Economic Integration. 2004 Sep 1:626–49. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23000702 26. Portmann FT, Siebert S, Do¨ll P. MIRCA2000—Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around

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https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000199 32. Kyle P, Thomson A, Wise M, Zhang X. Assessment of the importance of spatial scale in long-term land use modeling of the Midwestern United States. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2015 Oct 1; 72:261–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.06.006 33. Zhang YW, McCarl BA, Jones JP. An overview of mitigation and adaptation needs and strategies for the livestock sector. Climate. 2017 Dec; 5(4):95. PLOS ONE The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237918 August 28, 2020 11 / 11