The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile

it is interesting to observe that both Financial Services and Commerce are much more preva- lent in the capital region than at the national level, while Mining has almost no value for the capital even if it represents the largest economic sector in the nation. Weather data We use weather data available from the University of Delaware Air Temperature and Precipi- tation dataset [28] that provides gridded mean monthly surface air temperature (in Celsius degrees) and total monthly precipitation (in centimeters per month) data from 1900–2017. The data covers the terrestrial area of the globe with a grid size of 0.5 degree latitude x 0.5 degree longitude, which is approximately 56km x 56km at the equator. The grid squares inter- sect the area of Chile. We use geospatial software (QGIS) to aggregate the weather data to the regional level. First, we determine the fraction of each grid that falls within the borders of each region. Then, for each region, we create the regional weather series as a weighted average of the weather series of each grid where the weight is equal to the share of the grid that intersects the region. In this way, a grid square that has 1 2 of its area intersecting a region receives 1 2 the weight of a grid square that completely intersects the region. The joint panel dataset of weather variables and GDP by region-industry is publicly available in Madeira (2022) [27]. Fig 1 shows the yearly precipitation and temperature from the University of Delaware data for Chile between 1950 and 2017, reporting the minimum, maximum and mean monthly val-

ues over the 12 months of the year. The national-wide temperature and precipitation are reported as weighted averages of the regions by surface area or by the GDP of each region. Both measures differ, since some regions can be large in surface area (square kilometers), but small in terms of GDP and economic activity (or in terms of population). Calculating average precipitation weighted by each region’s GDP can help obtain more accurate measures for the temperature and precipitation that affect economic activities such as agriculture, transports and services. Surface weights on the other hand may be a better proxy for the impact of weather changes on natural habitats and biodiversity. Minimum and mean precipitation is larger for the weighted surface measure, because larger regions have higher precipitation. Max- imum and mean temperatures are lower by weighted surface, since the larger regions are cooler. Both the weighted GDP and weighted surface measures at the national level show that —despite large fluctuations in some years—the mean precipitation has been falling in Chile over time, while mean temperatures have increased substantially. Table 2. Fraction (%) of the value of each industry for the GDP of each region (1985–2017). Industry / Region I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV Agriculture and Forestry 0.1 0.0 1.8 7.0 3.0 11.7 12.7 7.4 14.5 7.7 3.7 1.9 0.9 13.3 5.3 Fishing 1.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.3 5.9 16.6 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.4

Mining 37.1 63.2 50.5 30.1 15.7 30.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.7 19.5 2.2 0.0 2.7 Manufacturing 7.5 5.8 1.8 2.9 16.6 10.4 13.3 22.8 11.4 20.9 7.5 25.3 12.3 25.7 12.6 EGA 1.7 2.6 5.4 2.2 3.3 5.2 17.5 9.3 1.7 4.1 1.2 1.9 2.6 4.3 1.6 Construction 7.5 6.7 9.2 7.8 7.5 7.1 8.2 7.1 8.6 8.0 8.1 5.8 6.2 5.2 6.4 Commerce 8.9 2.7 3.9 7.4 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.3 8.4 7.9 7.4 6.0 17.4 8.0 8.0 Transportation 7.6 4.6 5.0 6.9 12.9 5.1 7.6 8.8 8.1 9.0 8.6 7.0 8.7 7.6 16.0 Financial Services 8.8 8.9 12.9 9.5 8.6 8.0 6.5 7.5 7.5 8.2 8.6 9.1 23.3 7.0 8.4 Home Ownership 4.1 1.9 4.2 7.9 10.3 6.5 10.1 9.3 10.6 7.7 6.1 6.2 9.8 8.2 8.9 Personal Services 7.0 3.7 5.8 11.5 11.8 11.0 14.3 14.0 19.7 15.2 12.8 8.1 12.7 15.6 17.2 Public Administration 4.8 1.4 4.0 5.9 5.9 3.6 6.7 6.3 9.7 8.5 17.4 9.9 4.7 8.8 16.7 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t002 PLOS ONE The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811 April 28, 2022 5 / 21