The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile

may decline between 18.7% and 33.9% in 2050, relative to a scenario with no additional climate change. Construction, Financial services and Home property would decline between 10.3% and 23.8% in 2050 due to the impact of worsening climate change. In terms of the total GDP, the effect of climate change in 2050 would imply a deterioration between 6.8% and 12.9%. By 2100 the Agriculture and Fishing industries would decline between 40% and 84.9%, while the Construction, Financial services and Home property would decline between 23.5% and 71.2% due to climate change. Climate change by 2100 could imply a deterioration between 15.5% and 42.3% on the total Chilean GDP. Table 11. Simulated impact (in %) of the climate change on the industry and overall GDP level and growth rates in Chile for the future�. Temperature increase Industries Total GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Impact on GDP level in 2050 relative to no warming after 2017 1.0˚C -18.7 -18.7 0.0 -4.6 0.0 -12.7 -6.2 0.0 -10.3 -10.3 -7.7 -5.6 -6.8 1.3˚C -23.6 -23.6 0.0 -5.9 0.0 -16.2 -8.0 0.0 -13.2 -13.2 -9.9 -7.2 -8.7 1.4˚C -25.2 -25.2 0.0 -6.3 0.0 -17.3 -8.6 0.0 -14.1 -14.1 -10.6 -7.7 -9.3 2.0˚C -33.9 -33.9 0.0 -8.9 0.0 -23.8 -12.0 0.0 -19.5 -19.5 -14.8 -10.9 -12.9 Impact on GDP level in 2100 relative to no warming after 2017 1.0˚C -40.0 -40.0 0.0 -10.9 0.0 -28.5 -14.6 0.0 -23.5 -23.5 -18.0 -13.2 -15.5 1.8˚C -60.2 -60.2 0.0 -18.7 0.0 -45.4 -24.8 0.0 -38.3 -38.3 -30.0 -22.5 -25.4

2.2˚C -67.5 -67.5 0.0 -22.4 0.0 -52.3 -29.4 0.0 -44.5 -44.5 -35.3 -26.8 -29.6 3.7˚C -84.9 -84.9 0.0 -34.7 0.0 -71.2 -44.3 0.0 -62.9 -62.9 -52.0 -40.9 -42.3 Notes: �Climate change temperature coefficients estimated for the USA industry (post-1997) from Table A21 plus Agriculture- (both years, only statistically significant coefficients) Fishing and Manufacturing industries coefficients from Table A20 (pre-1997) in Colacito, Hoffmann and Phan (2019). (1) Agriculture and Forestry, (2) Fishing, (3) Mining, (4) Manufacturing, (5) EGA, (6) Construction, (7) Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels, (8) Transport and Communications, (9) Financial Services, (10) Home Ownership, (11) Personal Services, (12) Public Administration https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t011 Table 10. Simulated impact (in %) of the climate change on the industry and overall GDP level and growth rates in Chile for the future�. Temperature increase Industries Total GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Impact on GDP level in 2050 relative to no warming after 2017 1.0˚C -4.6 -4.6 53.4 -9.1 7.0 -12.7 -6.2 0.2 -10.3 -10.3 -7.7 -5.6 -0.8 1.3˚C -5.9 -5.9 74.4 -11.7 9.1 -16.2 -8.0 0.3 -13.2 -13.2 -9.9 -7.2 -0.4 1.4˚C -6.3 -6.3 82.0 -12.5 9.9 -17.3 -8.6 0.3 -14.1 -14.1 -10.6 -7.7 -0.2 2.0˚C -8.9 -8.9 135.2 -17.4 14.4 -23.8 -12.0 0.4 -19.5 -19.5 -14.8 -10.9 2.0 Impact on GDP level in 2100 relative to no warming after 2017

1.0˚C -10.9 -10.9 187.7 -21.0 18.1 -28.5 -14.6 0.5 -23.5 -23.5 -18.0 -13.2 5.0 1.8˚C -18.7 -18.7 570.0 -34.6 34.9 -45.4 -24.8 1.0 -38.3 -38.3 -30.0 -22.5 36.1 2.2˚C -22.4 -22.4 922.4 -40.5 44.2 -52.3 -29.4 1.2 -44.5 -44.5 -35.3 -26.8 69.4 3.7˚C -34.7 -34.7 4889.2 -58.2 85.0 -71.2 -44.3 2.0 -62.9 -62.9 -52.0 -40.9 477.6 Notes: �Climate change temperature coefficients estimated for the USA industry (post-1997) from Table A21 (both) years in Colacito, Hoffmann and Phan (2019). (1) Agriculture and Forestry, (2) Fishing, (3) Mining, (4) Manufacturing, (5) EGA, (6) Construction, (7) Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels, (8) Transport and Communications, (9) Financial Services, (10) Home Ownership, (11) Personal Services, (12) Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t010 PLOS ONE The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811 April 28, 2022 16 / 21