The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile

and statistically significant. Again, under this assumption, Agriculture, Fishing, Manufacture, EGA, Construction and Commerce are the only industries hurt by climate change whether at the horizons of 2050 or 2100. In terms of the negative impact of climate change on the total GDP, it could range between 9% and 14.8% in 2050 and between 16.8% and 29.6% in 2100. Table 8. Simulated impact of the climate change on the industry, overall GDP and growth rates in Chile: Only stat. significant coefficients (monthly, Table 5). Temperature increase Industries Total GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Impact on GDP growth rate in 2017 relative to no warming after 1985 0.26˚C� -0.8 -3.1 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 0 0.4 0 0.1 0 -0.1 Impact on GDP level in 2050 relative to no warming after 2017 �� 1.0˚C -40.0 -87.2 8.9 -31.2 -48.5 -5.0 -11.2 0 33.5 0 3.5 0 -2.3 1.3˚C -48.5 -93.1 11.7 -38.5 -57.8 -6.4 -14.3 0 45.6 0 4.5 0 -1.9 1.4˚C -51.0 -94.4 12.6 -40.8 -60.5 -6.9 -15.3 0 49.9 0 4.9 0 -1.7 2.0˚C -63.9 -98.4 18.5 -52.7 -73.4 -9.7 -21.2 0 78.2 0 7.0 0 0.4 Impact on GDP level in 2100 relative to no warming after 2017 �� 1.0˚C -71.6 -99.4 23.4 -60.3 -80.6 -11.8 -25.5 0 104.2 0 8.8 0 3.2 1.8˚C -89.6 -100 45.9 -81.0 -94.8 -20.3 -41.1 0 261.5 0 16.3 0 25.3 2.2˚C -93.7 -100 58.7 -86.9 -97.3 -24.2 -47.6 0 381.0 0 20.3 0 44.0 3.7˚C -99.1 -100 117.5 -96.7 -99.8 -37.3 -66.3 0 1303.8 0 36.5 0 193.2 Notes:

�Global temperature increase over the period 1985–2017. ��RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5. (1) Agriculture and Forestry, (2) Fishing, (3) Mining, (4) Manufacturing, (5) EGA, (6) Construction, (7) Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels, (8) Transport and Communications, (9) Financial Services, (10) Home Ownership, (11) Personal Services, (12) Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t008 Table 9. Simulated impact of the climate change on the industry, overall GDP and growth rates in Chile: Only stat. significant coefficients with a negative value (monthly, Table 5). Temperature increase Industries Total GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Impact on GDP growth rate in 2017 relative to no warming after 1985 �� 0.26˚C� -0.8 -3.1 0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 Impact on GDP level in 2050 relative to no warming after 2017 �� 1.0˚C -40.0 -87.2 0 -31.2 -48.5 -5.0 -11.2 0 0 0 0 0 -9.0 1.3˚C -48.5 -93.1 0 -38.5 -57.8 -6.4 -14.3 0 0 0 0 0 -10.9 1.4˚C -51.0 -94.4 0 -40.8 -60.5 -6.9 -15.3 0 0 0 0 0 -11.5 2.0˚C -63.9 -98.4 0 -52.7 -73.4 -9.7 -21.2 0 0 0 0 0 -14.8 Impact on GDP level in 2100 relative to no warming after 2017 �� 1.0˚C -71.6 -99.4 0 -60.3 -80.6 -11.8 -25.5 0 0 0 0 0 -16.8 1.8˚C -89.6 -100 0 -81.0 -94.8 -20.3 -41.1 0 0 0 0 0 -22.9 2.2˚C -93.7 -100 0 -86.9 -97.3 -24.2 -47.6 0 0 0 0 0 -24.9 3.7˚C -99.1 -100 0 -96.7 -99.8 -37.3 -66.3 0 0 0 0 0 -29.6 Notes: �Global temperature increase over the period 1985–2017.

��RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5. (1) Agriculture and Forestry, (2) Fishing, (3) Mining, (4) Manufacturing, (5) EGA, (6) Construction, (7) Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels, (8) Transport and Communications, (9) Financial Services, (10) Home Ownership, (11) Personal Services, (12) Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t009 PLOS ONE The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811 April 28, 2022 14 / 21