The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile

Table 7 shows the impact of the average global temperature increase according to different climate emission paths [14] under the assumption that we apply all the model’s coefficients in the forecast. Under this assumption, Fishing, Mining, Home property and Public administra- tion are the only industries hurt by climate change whether at the horizons of 2050 or 2100. In particular, Fishing’s GDP almost disappears by 2100, even with just a 1.0 C increase in temper- ature. With all the model’s estimated coefficients, Mining and Home property would also decrease by at least 55% and 25.5%, respectively, by 2100. However, climate change would have a strong positive impact on the other economic sectors and therefore the total Chilean GDP would increase across all scenarios in 2050 and 2100. It is unlikely that such large positive impacts of climate change may materialize, however, since these projections obviously assume that the coefficients are fixed over time. Probably it is more realistic to assume that the positive impacts of climate change may decline over time and even turn into negative effects. Table 8 shows the impact of the average global temperature increase according to different climate emission paths [14] under the assumption that we apply only the model’s coefficients that are statistically significant at the 10% level at least. Under this assumption, Agriculture, Fishing, Manufacture, EGA, Construction and Commerce are the only industries hurt by cli- mate change whether at the horizons of 2050 or 2100. Even with just a 1.0 C increase in tem-

perature, Agriculture, Fishing, Manufacture, EGA, Construction and Commerce would decline by 71.6%, 99.4%, 60.3%, 80.6%, 11.8% and 25.5%, respectively, around 2100. However, climate change would have a strong positive impact on the other economic sectors and there- fore the total Chilean GDP would change only slightly in 2050 and it would even increase across all scenarios in 2100. Again, however, this result is strongly dependent on the positive effects of climate change estimated for some sectors and these effects may not materialize, since such positive effects may decline over time and even turn into negative effects. Finally, Table 9 shows the impact of the average global temperature increase according to different climate emission paths [14] using only the model’s coefficients that are both negative Table 7. Simulated impact (in %) of the climate change on the industry, overall GDP and growth rates in Chile for 1985–2017 and for future (monthly, all coeffi- cients, Table 5). Temperature increase Industries Total GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Impact on GDP growth rate in 2017 relative to no warming after 1985 0.26˚C� 0.3 -2.3 -0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 Impact on GDP level in 2050 relative to no warming after 2017 1.0˚C 24.7 -77.6 -27.6 53.0 38.1 22.6 7.0 3.5 20.6 -11.2 1.7 -3.3 9.8 1.3˚C 33.3 -85.7 -34.3 73.8 52.2 30.4 9.2 4.5 27.5 -14.3 2.2 -4.3 14.0 1.4˚C 36.3 -87.7 -36.4 81.3 57.2 33.1 10.0 4.9 29.9 -15.3 2.4 -4.6 15.5

2.0˚C 55.6 -95.0 -47.6 134.0 90.8 50.4 14.6 7.0 45.4 -21.2 3.5 -6.6 26.0 Impact on GDP level in 2100 relative to no warming after 2017 1.0˚C 72.6 -97.5 -55.0 185.8 122.1 65.5 18.3 8.8 58.7 -25.5 4.3 -8.1 36.3 1.8˚C 167.2 -99.9 -76.2 561.9 320.6 147.7 35.3 16.3 129.7 -41.1 7.9 -14.0 105.6 2.2˚C 232.4 -100 -82.7 907.4 478.7 203.1 44.7 20.3 176.3 -47.6 9.7 -16.9 164.4 3.7˚C 654.0 -100 -94.8 4766.7 1815.6 545.5 86.2 36.5 452.6 -66.3 16.8 -26.7 738.0 Notes: �Global temperature increase over the period 1985–2017. (1) Agriculture and Forestry, (2) Fishing, (3) Mining, (4) Manufacturing, (5) EGA, (6) Construction, (7) Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels, (8) Transport and Communications, (9) Financial Services, (10) Home Ownership, (11) Personal Services, (12) Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t007 PLOS ONE The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811 April 28, 2022 13 / 21