The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile

coefficients for Fishing lost statistical significance (see Table B1 in S2 Appendix). We also include an exercise that aggregates regions I and XV plus regions X and XIV, therefore pre- senting 13 regions for the entire period of 1985 to 2017 (see Table B2 in S2 Appendix with the quarterly temperatures’ model and Table B1 in S2 Appendix with the monthly temperatures’ model). Calibrated projections of the climate change impact for 2050 and 2100 Now we use the estimated coefficients from the model with the monthly weather fluctuations (Table 5) to implement a calibrated exercise using the global temperature projections of the IPCC (2014) [14] to project how a uniform temperature increase throughout the entire year may affect the Chilean GDP. Climate studies consider several scenarios given by Representa- tive Concentration Pathways (RCP), with RCP 2.6 being denoted as the best possible scenario Table 5. Coefficients for the impact of temperature (monthly averages) on regional industry GDP: OLS with fixed-effects by time and region, separate regressions by industry. Agriculture Fishing Mining Manufact. EGA Constr. Commerce Transp. Finan. serv. Home Pers. serv. Pub. adm. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Jan -0.028��� -0.121��� 0.019 0.006 -0.039��� -0.015� 0.004 0.006 0.002 -0.000 0.001 -0.001 (0.009) (0.027) (0.028) (0.010) (0.012) (0.008) (0.005) (0.004) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Feb 0.008 0.004 0.018�� 0.006 -0.001 0.010 0.004� 0.005 -0.003 -0.000 0.001 -0.001

(0.005) (0.023) (0.007) (0.011) (0.004) (0.025) (0.002) (0.005) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Mar 0.006 0.035 0.026 0.014 0.006 -0.026 0.002 -0.008 0.010��� -0.004 0.000 0.003 (0.010) (0.034) (0.030) (0.010) (0.016) (0.018) (0.006) (0.006) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Apr 0.008 -0.042 -0.020 -0.015 0.023 0.009 -0.011� 0.005 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.000 (0.006) (0.050) (0.025) (0.010) (0.016) (0.023) (0.006) (0.003) (0.004) (0.001) (.) (0.002) May -0.007� -0.023 -0.038� 0.003 -0.004 -0.009 -0.003 -0.006 -0.003 0.002 -0.000 0.001 (0.004) (0.027) (0.021) (0.012) (0.013) (0.017) (0.004) (0.005) (0.003) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) Jun 0.005 0.044 -0.030��� 0.009 0.004 0.017 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 -0.000 (0.005) (0.034) (0.009) (0.011) (0.010) (0.019) (0.005) (0.003) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Jul 0.004 0.007 0.055��� 0.001 -0.014 0.005 -0.001 0.008 -0.000 0.001 0.002 -0.001 (0.008) (0.023) (0.017) (0.008) (0.019) (0.019) (0.005) (0.005) (0.003) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) Aug -0.000 0.019 -0.018 0.009 0.037 0.047��� 0.007 -0.006 -0.000 -0.002 -0.001 0.001 (0.009) (0.023) (.) (0.019) (0.028) (0.018) (0.004) (0.006) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) Sep -0.018��� -0.049 0.036 -0.022�� 0.001 -0.035�� -0.000 0.002 0.007� -0.001 0.001 -0.002 (0.007) (0.049) (0.024) (0.009) (0.018) (0.017) (0.006) (0.002) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002)

Oct 0.012�� 0.047 -0.003 0.003 0.007 -0.016 0.002 -0.003 -0.006 -0.001 0.002� -0.000 (0.005) (0.042) (0.020) (0.009) (0.017) (0.021) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) Nov 0.023 -0.010 -0.027 0.009 -0.020 -0.003 0.001 0.001 0.005 -0.001 0.001 -0.002 (0.015) (0.042) (0.027) (0.016) (0.016) (0.028) (0.006) (0.003) (0.005) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) Dec 0.000 0.001 -0.037 0.002 0.019 0.028 0.006� -0.001 -0.000 -0.000 -0.001 0.000 (0.006) (0.027) (0.029) (0.016) (.) (0.026) (0.003) (0.005) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) N 465 436 395 465 460 465 465 465 465 465 465 465 R2 0.187 0.113 0.087 0.065 0.112 0.082 0.058 0.087 0.106 0.158 0.060 0.054 Notes: Observations not weighted for GDP in regressions. Lagged industry growth rate and monthly precipitation included in regressions. Robust standard errors clustered by year and region in parentheses. �� p<0.01, �� p<0.05, � p<0.1 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811.t005 PLOS ONE The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266811 April 28, 2022 11 / 21