Climate change and seismic resilience: Key considerations for Alaska’s infrastructure and built environment

adjustment in some regions. For instance, the melting of glaciers can lead to changes in the stress distribution along major faults throughout Alaska, potentially increasing the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes. Rollins et al. [12] discussed the impact of glacial melt on the 1958 moment magnitude, Mw, 7.8 earthquake in Alaska, which triggered a landslide in Lituya Bay, resulting in a tsunami with a record-breaking maximum wave height of 1720 meters. Fur- thermore, the authors found that 23 of the 30 instrumentally constrained Mw�5.0 earthquakes in Southeast Alaska were promoted by glacial isostatic adjustment. The impacts of climate change, such as permafrost thaw, melting of sea ice and glaciers, and water table fluctuations, can increase the vulnerability of infrastructure systems to seismic activity. This, in turn, may exacerbate the impacts of climate change by damaging critical infra- structure and further compromising the resilience of communities. Mitigating these risks requires a multidisciplinary and collaborative approach that accounts for the unique social, economic, and cultural contexts of Alaska. This qualitative study assesses and prioritizes con- cerns involved in earthquake resilience, amid a changing climate, at both the state and local levels in Alaska by leveraging informant interviews, an international workshop, and a review of the state of the art and identifies opportunities for enhancing capacity to prepare and respond at the community, academic, and governance levels.

In this study, resilience and vulnerability are viewed as closely connected concepts. Resil- ience refers to the ability of a system to withstand and recover from shocks and stresses [13– 17], while vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of a system to damage or harm from such shocks and stresses [18, 19]. Methods To identify engineering opportunities to enhance seismic resilience amid a changing climate, an exploratory research effort synthesized several sources of information compiled in 2021 and 2022. These sources include a literature review, semi-structured key informant interviews, and contributions to a workshop titled “1st International Workshop on Seismic Resilience of Arctic Infrastructure and Social Systems”. This workshop was hosted by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and held in Anchorage, Alaska [20]. Ethics approval for this study was obtained from the Institutional Review Board of UNH (approval number 8498). The key infor- mant sample was developed using chain-referral sampling to capture a range of expertise, mainly engineering, physical science, and government staff (such as emergency managers and planners), plus some representatives of Native communities (particularly Tribal government staff), social science, private sector, and a non-profit organization. Fifteen in-depth semi-struc- tured interviews were conducted using a set of questions as an interview guide. These were performed via videoconference and subsequently transcribed, and thematically coded using

qualitative data management software. Prior to the videoconference interviews, informed con- sent forms were provided to key informants through an electronically fillable PDF, subjects were requested to sign and return the PDF via email. An opportunity to ask questions about the consent and verbally confirm the consent was also provided at the start of the interview. Ten of the 50 participants in the 2.5-day workshop overlapped with the interview sample, gen- erating a combined total of 55 interview and workshop participants (Fig 2A). Workshop par- ticipants were informed that workshop organizers may take notes and record audio and visual throughout the event. Participants were also informed that due to the relatively public nature of the workshop, participant anonymity may not necessarily be guaranteed. Workshops are typically based on a participatory method where attendees work together to develop ideas and form objectives related to a common issue or topic. This format provides opportunities for researchers to capture discussions, form topics, and identify priority needs of a community PLOS ONE Climate change and seismic resilience: Key considerations for Alaska’s infrastructure and built environment PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0292320 October 18, 2023 3 / 17