GMO approvals under pressure: How climate shocks shape policy across nations

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298 October 22, 2025 6 / 20 We then explore how comparative advantage in GMOs, 1 γi , influences the capital allocation decision to GMO-intensive production, θi . Since a closed-form solution for capital allocation θi is not analytically tractable, we employ numerical simulations in Mathematica by assuming other model parameters constant (i.e., α, η, τi, τj, θj). Parameter values are set as follows: α = 0.5, τi = τj = 0.4, η = 0.5θj = 10. Fig 2 plots θi against 1 γi , showing that countries with lower comparative advantage in GMO production allocate less capital to the GMO sector ( ∂θi ∂ 1 γi < 0). This suggests that countries lacking a comparative advantage in GMOs may hesitate to invest in GMO technologies due to high adaptation costs, institutional constraints, or limited capacity. These findings are consistent with Conte et al. (2021), who argue that countries tend to reallocate resources toward sectors where they retain relative competitiveness following external shocks. Fig 3 also depicts the mechanism linking climate Shocks to GMO regulatary regimes. 2.5. From theory to data Core theoretical hypothesis. Climate shocks reduce comparative advantage in GMO production and decrease capital allocated to GMO technologies. Fig 2. The impact of comparative advantage in the GMO sector on GMO adoption. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.g002 Fig 3. Mechanism linking climate shocks to GMO regulation. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.g003