GMO approvals under pressure: How climate shocks shape policy across nations

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298 October 22, 2025 2 / 20 and trade. However, these divergent approaches create challenges for other coun- tries, which must navigate how to engage in trade with partners that have conflicting GMO regulations [3]. The lack of regulatory alignment not only undermines efforts toward international harmonization but also contributes to instability in global supply chains [4–7]. This paper investigates a key question: how and why do climate shocks influence decisions to approve GMOs, particularly in the context of varying national regulations, technological capabilities, and strategic priorities. Previous research has explored how climate change affects food security [8], the drivers of technological innovation [9–11], and the effects of climate-related risks on global trade [12]. Yet, much less is known about how climate shocks interact with national policies governing GMO approvals. For example, prior study finds rising environmental concerns can increase firms’ incentives to develop cleaner technologies [10]. Similarly, innovation activity intensifies in response to temperature shocks [13]. However, the institutional and economic factors shaping the regulatory approval of GMOs remain largely unex- plored. The global community faces a dual challenge: intensifying climate shocks and persistent public debate over GMO safety and acceptance—both of which have impli- cations for food security [14]. This study contributes to closing this gap by examining

how climate shocks influence GMO approval patterns through the lens of compara- tive advantage. To explore these issues, this paper develops a theoretical model that connects how countries produce and consume agricultural products, with a focus on GMO adoption. On the consumption side, we use a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function to represent how countries consume products with varying levels of GMO content. On the production side, the model considers how differences in resources and exposure to climate shocks affect producers’ decisions to use GMO technology. The key insight from the model is that climate shocks can alter a coun- try’s technological strengths, known as comparative advantage, which in turn shapes its willingness or ability to approve new GMO products. In particular, the model pre- dicts that countries with weaker technological capacity in GMOs may be less inclined to approve them following climate shocks, while countries with stronger capacity are more likely to expand GMO use in response to these challenges. In the empirical analysis, we test whether countries alter their GMO approval processes in response to climate shocks, employing local projection methods. This study collects GMO approval data at both the country and commodity levels from the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) and compile climate shock data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) for the period 2000–2018. To account for differences in technological and economic

capacity, we include measures such as GDP per capita and a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, which reflect a country’s capacity to adopt GMO technolo- gies. The results show that countries with a weaker comparative advantage in GMOs face more persistent declines in approvals after climate shocks. For example, four years after a shock, GMO approvals drop by an average of 0.037 events in these countries, while no significant change occurs in countries with stronger comparative advantages in GMOs. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.