GMO approvals under pressure: How climate shocks shape policy across nations

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298 October 22, 2025 17 / 20 by droughts, countries with limited economic, regulatory, and technological capacity may hesitate to approve new GMO varieties. In contrast, higher-income countries—with more developed regulatory systems and access to scientific exper- tise—are more likely to respond by approving drought-tolerant GMOs to improve crop resilience and food security. Therefore, this paper posits that the relationship between climate shocks and GMO approvals is shaped by a coun- try’s comparative advantage in GMO technologies and its level of development. In countries with limited capacity or weak positioning in the global GMO market, protective or risk-averse policies may override the incentives to adopt GMOs in the face of climate shocks. Rather than accelerating innovation, climate stress may intensify regulatory hesitation or rein- force political resistance to GMOs. This dynamic can worsen food insecurity, especially in regions already vulnerable to climate-related agricultural disruptions. These results highlight the importance of designing adaptive GMO policies that reflect both national capabilities and the growing need for technological solutions in the face of increasing climate volatility. 8. Conclusion This study investigates how climate shocks influence national decisions to approve GMOs. It finds that countries with a comparative disadvantage in GMO technologies are more likely to reduce GMO approvals following extreme climate

events. Using both theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, the paper shows that climate shocks can weaken a coun- try’s comparative advantage in GMO production and reduce the capital allocated to GMO-related technologies. Empiri- cally, the paper uses the local projection method to estimate the cumulative effects of climate shocks on GMO approvals, controlling for country and commodity fixed effects as well as a set of relevant socioeconomic and institutional variables. The findings show that, on average, one additional climate shock reduces GMO approvals by 0.03 events four years later. Droughts and severe winter conditions emerge as the most disruptive climate events, with long-lasting negative effects on GMO approvals over a seven-year horizon. This paper reveals the mechanism behind the impact of climate shocks on GMO approvals in two ways. First, GDP per capita is used as a proxy for a country’s capacity to invest in and implement GMO technologies. At lower income levels, countries tend to approve fewer GMOs—even several years after experiencing climate shocks. This pattern persists when focusing only on GMOs that have already been approved in other countries, and when the analysis is limited to drought Fig 6. Marginal effects of the logarithm of GDP per capita on drought-related GMO approvals. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.g006