GMO approvals under pressure: How climate shocks shape policy across nations

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298 October 22, 2025 14 / 20 Table 7. Impact of total climate shocks on GMO approvals in first time approvals and have been approved before. Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Horizon 4 Horizon 5 Horizon 6 Horizon 7 Have been approved before Total Shock −0.056 −0.094 −0.049 −0.063 −0.226* −0.131 −0.094 (0.056) (0.071) (0.068) (0.091) (0.107) (0.117) (0.116) Log (GDP per capita) 0.684*** 0.949*** 0.866*** 0.713*** 0.378** 0.253* 0.134 (0.137) (0.164) (0.130) (0.125) (0.114) (0.120) (0.135) Total Shock x Log (GDP per capita) 0.007 0.013 0.007 0.007 0.031* 0.011 0.015 (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) (0.011) (0.012) (0.014) (0.014) Lag_Approval 0.016 −0.026 0.014 −0.051*** −0.021 −0.034 0.025 (0.015) (0.020) (0.019) (0.014) (0.022) (0.024) (0.029) Agri Share 0.035* 0.058** 0.040 0.024 −0.001 0.015 0.006 (0.016) (0.020) (0.020) (0.022) (0.021) (0.025) (0.024) Arable Land −0.022 −1.140 −1.195 −0.968 0.854 −0.330 −0.028 (1.222) (0.861) (0.789) (1.245) (1.745) (1.849) (1.868) UPOV 0.304 0.251 0.178 0.308 −0.043 −0.064 0.001 (0.288) (0.295) (0.259) (0.289) (0.266) (0.280) (0.280) Infrastructure 7.509*** 10.325*** 11.550*** 9.268** 6.351** 4.366 1.902 (2.086) (2.097) (2.663) (2.921) (2.273) (2.875) (2.565) Observations 3832 3604 3376 3148 2920 2692 2464 R-squared 0.166 0.184 0.183 0.178 0.174 0.175 0.173

Note. The dependent variable is the number of GMO events approved, so coefficients are interpreted in unit terms. Horizons refer to the response years. Standard errors are in parentheses. Statistical significance is denoted by *** (1%), ** (5%), and * (10%) levels. Country fixed effect and commodity fixed effect are included. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.t007 Fig 5. Marginal effects of the logarithm of GDP per capita on GMO approvals that have been approved before. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.g005