GMO approvals under pressure: How climate shocks shape policy across nations

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298 October 22, 2025 13 / 20 Table 6. Local projections of the cumulative change in GMO approvals relative to climate shocks (Up to 7 Years Post-Shock) with GMO exper- tise interaction. Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Horizon 4 Horizon 5 Horizon 6 Horizon 7 Total Shock x Log (GDP per capita) −0.013 −0.009 −0.009 −0.020*** 0.002 0.002 −0.004 (0.011) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.008) (0.007) Log (GDP per capita) 0.765*** 0.687*** 0.766*** 0.731*** 0.360*** 0.380*** 0.486*** (0.111) (0.095) (0.098) (0.100) (0.080) (0.077) (0.086) Total Shock 0.120 0.074 0.091* 0.144*** −0.002 −0.025 0.046 (0.086) (0.052) (0.039) (0.037) (0.066) (0.059) (0.058) Lag_Approval 0.106*** 0.313*** 0.109*** −0.016 0.206*** 0.037 −0.066 (0.022) (0.031) (0.029) (0.020) (0.038) (0.031) (0.036) Agri Share 0.052*** 0.044** 0.041* 0.028 0.002 0.009 0.006 (0.013) (0.013) (0.016) (0.020) (0.018) (0.016) (0.020) Arable Land 0.154 −0.516 −0.382 −0.472 0.826 −0.262 0.339 (0.972) (0.511) (0.584) (0.869) (1.126) (1.200) (1.160) UPOV 0.138 0.233 0.229 0.288* 0.178 0.045 0.162 (0.174) (0.177) (0.146) (0.140) (0.140) (0.113) (0.110) Infrastructure 6.407*** 6.875*** 9.044*** 7.811** 6.297** 6.486* 6.407* (1.578) (1.700) (2.212) (2.402) (2.082) (2.448) (2.529) Observations 4308 4052 3796 3540 3284 3028 2772 R-squared 0.251 0.342 0.287 0.281 0.299 0.289 0.294

Note. The dependent variable is the number of GMO events approved, so coefficients are interpreted in unit terms. Horizons refer to the response years. Standard errors are in parentheses. Statistical significance is denoted by *** (1%), ** (5%), and * (10%) levels. Country fixed effect and commodity fixed effect are included. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.t006 Fig 4. Marginal effects of the logarithm of GDP per capita on GMO approvals at different climate shock frequency levels. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332298.g004