Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

Ability for management reform to mitigate country-level climate impacts While business-as-usual management results in lower catches and profits relative to today for the majority of countries (82–85% of countries), full adaptation yields higher catches and prof- its for a majority of countries in all but the most severe emission scenario (Fig 3 and S3 Fig). In this scenario, only 35% of countries experience both increased profits and catches, while 59% of countries experience both reduced catches and profits (Fig 3). Realistic adaptation imple- mented at 5-year intervals achieves outcomes quite similar to full adaptation: it results in higher catch and profits for the majority (56–63%) of countries under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 but lower catch and profits for the majority (59%) of countries under RCP 8.5 (Fig 3). The ability for adaptation to maintain or increase fisheries outcomes under climate change is sensitive to the direction and magnitude of changes in underlying productivity (Figs 3–5). For example, the West African countries projected to experience the greatest losses in MSY are also pro- jected to have the most limited ability to mitigate these impacts (Figs 1 and 4). Although realis- tic adaptation (5-yr) could increase both catch and profits for 51% of the countries projected Fig 3. Percent difference in mean catch and profits in 2091–2100 relative to 2012–2021 (“today”) for 156 countries under three emissions scenarios (columns) and three management scenarios (rows). The percentage labels indicate the percentage of countries falling in each quadrant of

catch and profit outcomes. Note that changes in catch and profits do not always match. This occurs when climate change and management strategies differentially favor more productive but less profitable species relative to less productive but more profitable species. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347.g003 PLOS ONE Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347 March 5, 2020 9 / 21