Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

Twenty-two countries are projected to experience increases in MSY under all three emissions scenarios with seven of these countries showing a 15% average increase in MSY across scenar- ios. The five most consistent and pronounced climate change “winners” are: Finland, Antarc- tica, Norway (4 EEZs: Norway plus Bouvet Island, Jan Mayen, and Svalbard), Portugal (3 EEZs: Portugal plus Azores and Madeira), and Fiji. Ability for management reform to mitigate global climate impacts Business-as-usual (BAU) management results in both lower catches and profits in the future relative to today under all three emissions scenarios (Fig 2). In contrast, full adaptation yields both higher catches and profits in the future in all but the most severe emissions scenario (RCP 8.5); in this scenario, full adaptation yields higher profits but lower catches in the future relative to today. Addressing productivity shifts and range shifts in isolation is insufficient for jointly maintaining catch and profits into the future under any of the emissions scenario (Fig 2). However, realistic adaptation, which recalibrates productivity management at 5, 10, and 20-year intervals and maintains this management regime as stocks shift across boundaries, frequently achieves better outcomes in the future relative to today (Fig 2). Notably, realistic adaption that implements adaptive management at 5-year intervals performs comparably to full adaptation and generates both higher catch and profits in the future relative to today

under the two least severe emissions scenarios (Fig 2). The ability for management reforms to offset losses due to climate change is largely due to the global legacy of sub-optimal manage- ment: only 11.5% of the evaluated stocks were fished near optimal levels (i.e., 0.8 � B/BMSY � 1.2 and 0.8 � F/FMSY � 1.2) in the initial year (S1 Fig); thus, reforms that end overfishing and sustainably exploit new resources jointly improve long-term yields. Fig 2. Percent difference in mean catch and profits in 2091–2100 relative to 2012–2021 (“today”) from all stocks under each emission and management scenario. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347.g002 PLOS ONE Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347 March 5, 2020 8 / 21