Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

and (3) promoting access to financial resources such as credit and insurance in countries where mariculture production has yet to develop [94]. Although mariculture has the potential to feed millions of people, it also poses a number of environmental problems including pollu- tion, habitat conversion, disease and parasite transmission, and escapement and hybridization [95]. The expansion of large-scale mariculture for increased food and employment opportuni- ties will thus require a better understanding of these environmental tradeoffs and the best practices for managing them [96]. Conclusions Although climate change is expected to reduce the productivity of marine fisheries globally [5], climate-adaptive fisheries management reforms could mitigate many of the negative impacts on the food and income provisioning potential of the ocean [19]. Our results suggest that cli- mate-adaptive fisheries could result in higher catch and profits than business-as-usual manage- ment in all countries. For most countries, climate-adaptive management reforms could result in higher catch and profits in the future than today. However, the ability for management reforms to offset negative impacts is diminished under increasingly severe greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, swift actions to reduce emissions will be necessary to limit the impacts of climate change on fisheries, especially in developing tropical countries. For many of these countries, even the best climate-adaptive fisheries reforms will be insufficient to maintain

current levels of catch and profits into the future. Adaptation in these countries will require innovations in sustainable mariculture and other food sectors to ensure that countries are able to meet the food and nutrition requirements of their growing populations [85]. As land-based sources of food also falter [97], the ocean will become an increasingly important source of nutrition. Achieving these benefits will depend on swift and innovative management actions. Supporting information S1 Table. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) evaluated in the analysis�. � See Table S1 in Gaines et al. [19] for earth system models contributing to ensemble mean. Note: RCP 2.6 is not evaluated because it is no longer likely (Raftery et al. 2017). (DOCX) S1 Fig. Initial condition of the 779 species stocks. The transparent grey box indicates near optimal fisheries management (i.e., i.e., 0.8 � B/BMSY � 1.2 and 0.8 � F/FMSY � 1.2). (TIFF) S2 Fig. Projected change in maximum sustainable yield (MSY) as a function of latitude (absolute degrees) under three emissions scenarios. (TIFF) S3 Fig. Percent difference in mean catch and profits in 2091–2100 relative to 2012–2021 (“today”) for 156 countries under three emissions scenarios (columns) and seven manage- ment scenarios (rows). The percentage labels indicate the percentage of countries falling in each quadrant of catch and profit outcomes. (TIFF) S4 Fig. Percent difference in cumulative catch and cumulative profits from 2012–2100 rel- ative to business-as-usual for 156 countries under three emissions scenarios (columns) and

six management scenarios (rows). The percentage labels indicate the percentage of countries falling in each quadrant of catch and profit outcomes. (TIFF) PLOS ONE Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347 March 5, 2020 16 / 21