Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

capacity systems, best practices include scientifically-informed catch limits, accountability measures, regional flexibility in policy practices, and protection of essential fish habitat [50]. In the United States, such measures have contributed to dramatic declines in overfishing, increases in biomass, and maintenance of catch and profits [51]. In lower capacity systems, best practices include implementing “primary fisheries management” [52] that uses best avail- able science and precautionary principles to manage data-poor and capacity-limited fisheries and establishing local, rights-based management [48] to incentivize sustainable stewardship. Rights-based management systems include catch share programs such as Individual Transfer- able Quotas (ITQs) and Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries (TURFs) that define property rights over catch and space, respectively [53]. By giving users ownership of the resource, well- designed rights-based management systems incentivize long-term stewardship and have been shown to promote compliance, prevent overfishing, and increase profits [16,54,55]. Enforce- ment and the strength of fishing pressure limits are also key for successful fisheries manage- ment [56] and contribute to a precautionary approach in the face of climate change. Overall, fisheries best practices confer ecological resilience by maintaining healthy stock sizes, age structures, and genetic diversity and socioeconomic resilience by providing a portfolio of options to fishers and a buffer against climate-driven losses in any one target stock.

Principle #2: Be dynamic, flexible, and forward-looking. Adapting to climate change will require dynamic, flexible, and forward-looking management. This can be achieved by aligning management policies with the spatio-temporal scales of climate change, ecosystem change, and socioeconomic responses [14]. In higher capacity systems, this could involve four broad strategies. First, managers can envision and prepare for alternative futures using tools such as forecasts [57,58], structured scenario planning [59,60], holistic ecosystem models [61,62], risk assessments [63], and climate vulnerability analyses [64]. Second, the proliferation of near real-time biological, oceanographic, social, and/or economic data can be harnessed for proactive and dynamic adjustments in spatial and temporal management actions [65]. Third, developing harvest control rules that account for or are robust to changing environmental conditions affecting productivity can increase catch while also reducing the probability of overfishing [66]. Finally, all of these management procedures should be simulation tested through management strategy evaluation (MSE; [67]) to measure the efficacy of alternative strategies and their robustness under different climate scenarios [37]. In lower capacity sys- tems, forward looking fisheries management could include precautionary management to buffer against uncertainty [68] as well as management strategies that preserve population resil- ience, age structure, and genetic diversity. For example, size limits, seasonal closures, and pro-

tected areas can be used to protect the big, old, fecund, females (BOFFs) that disproportionately contribute to reproductive output [69] and to maintain the genetic diversity required to promote evolutionary adaptations to climate change. Principle #3: Foster international cooperation. Shifting distributions are already gener- ating management challenges and the rates of these shifts and associated conflicts are expected to increase with climate change [17,18,70]. New or strengthened international institutions and agreements will be necessary to ensure that management remains sustainable as stocks shift between jurisdictions. First, this will require sharing data between Regional Fisheries Manage- ment Organizations (RFMOs) or countries to identify, describe, and forecast shifting stocks. Second, it will require a commitment to use these shared data to inform collaborative manage- ment. For example, these data could be used to regularly and objectively update national allo- cations of catch or effort based on changes in distribution rather than historical allocations (e.g., [71,72]). An alternative approach could be to develop fisheries permits that are tradeable across political boundaries, which would allow future resource users access to fisheries not yet in their waters and incentivize good management [73]. Finally, incentivizing the cooperation PLOS ONE Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347 March 5, 2020 14 / 21