Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

to lose underlying productivity (i.e., lower MSY) in the least severe emissions scenario, it could increase outcomes despite losses in productivity for only 23% of countries in the most severe emissions scenario (Fig 4). In comparison, realistic adaptation (5-yr) could increase both catch and profit for a much larger proportion of countries projected to gain underlying productivity: 78% of these countries (n = 69) could increase both catch and profits in the least severe emis- sions scenario and this percentage actually increases to 95% in the most severe emissions sce- nario as these poleward countries (n = 22) inherit even more productivity (Fig 4). Neither realistic (5-yr) nor full adaptation are sufficient to maintain fisheries outcomes into the future for all countries, but they are nearly always preferable to business-as-usual management. In all but the most severe emissions scenario, both full adaptation and realistic adaptation yield both higher cumulative catches and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all Fig 4. Influence of changes in maximum sustainable yield (MSY) on the ability for management to generate higher catch and profits in the future (2091–2100) relative to today (2012–2021). Bars indicate the proportion of countries experiencing each combination of catch and profits trajectories under each emissions scenario, management scenario (rows), and change in underlying productivity (columns). The number of countries experiencing

reductions in MSY increases under increasingly severe emissions scenarios (see column title for numbers). Although the number of countries experiencing gains in MSY decreases under increasingly severe emissions scenarios (see column title for numbers), the gains in MSY in these countries are actually magnified with increasing emissions (i.e., more fish stocks move into their exclusive economic zones with more rapid warming). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347.g004 PLOS ONE Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347 March 5, 2020 10 / 21