Deciphering climate-induced displacement in Somalia: A remote sensing perspective

on less than $2 per day. Furthermore, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) places Somalia seventh globally in terms of displaced populations. Since 1990, Somalia has endured over 30 extreme weather events, encompassing 12 droughts and 19 floods, triggering two significant famines in 1991–92 and 2011. These disas- ters led to more than 3.2 million new displacements, implying the number of movements rather than the number of individuals displaced. Given that over 80% of Somalia’s territory features arid and semi-arid climates, and rainfall exhibits high spatial and temporal variability, these adverse environmental impacts and inadequate natural resource management negatively affect the nation’s economy. Approximately 70% of Somalis are reliant on climate-sensitive agricultural and pastoral activities. The recurring interplay of drought and floods undermines food security and access to basic services, heightening vulnerability and prompting displacement at varying scales. UNHCR data reveals that since 2016, over three million Somalis have been displaced due to recurrent extreme droughts and floods. Despite assumptions concerning "environmental migration" that posit immediate displacement following weather-related disasters such as floods, storms, and drought, the displacement process involves diverse responses and trajectories influenced by contextual conditions and individual capabilities rather than purely rational choices. In regions like Somalia, prone to recurrent extreme weather events, disasters and detrimental

environmental conditions may trigger multiple instances of displacement, further amplifying vulnerability. Environmental factors, progressively worsening as the climate becomes hotter and drier, directly impinge upon crop, livestock, and forestry-based livelihood systems. Regular and pre- dictable rainfall is critical for the pastoral and rural communities across Somalia. Beyond the immediate effects of abrupt extreme weather events, the slow-onset of environmental degrada- tion is a crucial factor provoking displacement towards more habitable regions. These rapid- and slow-onset environmental conditions may play divergent roles in individuals’ decisions to migrate either internally or internationally at different times. Numerous qualitative and mixed-methods studies have shown that in many instances, the decision to migrate often materialises as a "last resort" in response to an extreme event, rendering existing living condi- tions unbearable [24–26]. To distinguish between new displacements and IDPs, Fig 1 denotes the number of movements, not individuals, as individuals can be displaced multiple times, a Fig 1. Total number of new displacements due to disasters between 2008–2020 in Somalia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304202.g001 PLOS ONE Deciphering Climate-induced Displacement in Somalia: A Remote Sensing Perspective PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304202 August 9, 2024 3 / 27