Deciphering climate-induced displacement in Somalia: A remote sensing perspective

are expanded upon in our study. These interconnections, along with our unique observations, signify the broader relevance of our research and its positioning amidst existing literature. Our analysis identified 2017 as the driest year for Somalia, with 2018 and 2019 being signifi- cantly impacted by floods. Regular rainfall periods, specifically the Gu and Dayer seasons, bring increased precipitation, which tends to mitigate drought impact during these growing seasons. In regions such as northern and central Somalia, where rapid-onset and slow-onset extreme climatic events occur either sequentially or concurrently, categorising environmental factors as beneficial or detrimental is intricate. This complexity is evident, for instance, when considering the mitigating effect of floods following severe droughts in agricultural areas. However, these environmental fluctuations may not always result in advantageous impacts on livelihoods. As we delve deeper into how these extreme weather phenomena affect people’s daily lives, it becomes clear that the consequences of rapid-onset events (like floods) and slow-onset events (like droughts) diverge, particularly in terms of individual or household response times. For instance, flood events prompt quick displacement, with minimal response time, indicating that people start evacuating shortly before floods occur, and often return to their homes soon after the floodwaters recede, contingent upon the area’s recovery. Our study confirms that the effects of floods are predominantly localised and confined to districts, and most flood-induced

displacement results in internal displacement within the same districts. Conversely, drought is a more progressive phenomenon, making adaptation to these more drastic changes challeng- ing. Displacement due to drought begins with a delay and subsequently sees a gradual increase in the number of IDPs. Additionally, returning to habitual residences post-drought is a consid- erably extended process. Our investigation into the underlying causes of displacement reveals a diverse and intersec- tional assortment of factors including climate-related threats, conflict, extreme poverty, and food insecurity. Given the profoundly inter-correlated nature of these factors and events, eval- uating their marginal effects proves unfeasible. When individuals face the repercussions of these threatening conditions on their livelihoods, well-being, and security, whether in the short, medium, or long term, the decision to relocate can be construed as a strategic response. However, the predictability of events in terms of timing and the magnitude of their impact var- ies, leading individuals to opt for immediate reactions to avoid imminent starvation and mate- rial deprivation, rather than employing strategic responses. Our research suggests that responses currently remain predominantly at an individual level, especially as mobility in response to slow-onset events significantly depends on individual "capabilities" [47]. Given projections of similar of greater magnitude climate change, develop- ing a robust assessment of current and future impacts solely through macro analyses of aggre-

gate socio-economic statistics of vulnerable regions and existing climate products seems unattainable. Specifically, detangling the intertwined aspects of economy, security, and climate appears to be an insurmountable challenge. Climate change and extreme weather events not only trigger migratory movements but also exacerbate other factors such as economic deprivation and food insecurity. In the context of Somalia, a country grappling with both environmental hazards and armed conflict for decades, the urgent need for sustainable solutions to its humanitarian crisis is evident. Addressing inter- nal displacement and migration in Somalia (and similarly afflicted countries) affectively will require resources beyond the Somalia’s capacity and call for multinational and multilateral col- laboration. The primary long-term strategy should aim at minimising the factors exacerbating climate change. Considering climate-induced migration, understanding the intricate and multifaceted rela- tionship between environmental variables and human migration goes beyond mere conceptual PLOS ONE Deciphering Climate-induced Displacement in Somalia: A Remote Sensing Perspective PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304202 August 9, 2024 23 / 27