Deciphering climate-induced displacement in Somalia: A remote sensing perspective

displaced from their homes who opted to remain within their home districts, while the total IDP numbers present the total number of individuals displaced in some way over the course of a month. As demonstrated in Fig 14, the initial displacement wave began two months after the onset of drought in November 2016 (the commencement of the dry season) and the majority of the displaced population returning to their homes in Qansax Dheere by May 2017. The remaining migrants took nearly a year to return to their homes. The second drought period spanned between June and September 2017, resulting in approximately 3,000 displaced people. This low number of displacements can be explained by the previous drought, during which many people had already left the district. Moreover, the drought that occurred during the agricul- tural growing season suggests there may have been enough food available for them to remain. The number of displaced people during the third drought period, from May to September 2019, did not exceed 3,000 people. This can be attributed to the availability of food during the agricultural growing season, much like the previous drought period. Two major drought periods were identified for the Doolow district between 2016 and 2019 in Fig 15. The initial drought began in June 2016 and concluded in January 2017, resulting in a significant external displacement from Doolow two months later. The second significant drought event occurred a month after the first migrants had returned home, lasting until

November 2018. As before, the migrants departed from Doolow two months later. This sug- gests that people might need to gather resources before they can move, and the decision to relocate can follow with a necessary time lag to realise the “capabilities” [9, 41]. While higher precipitation during the Gu and Deyr growing seasons might seem to decrease the impact of droughts decreases during these periods, we observed instances that contradict this expectation. In the case of Qansax Dheere, displacements were often external with no incoming migration. However, Doolow had a high negative net IDP, meaning that large numbers of people moved into Doolow due to drought in other districts is Somalia. This is not unexpected as people who managed to arrive in Doolow are closer to humanitarian sup- port such as safety, food and healthcare provided at the nearby refugee reception centres and Fig 14. Internal, total, and net IDP for the Qansax Dheere district compared to the Drought ADI classification and flood events for this same period. Please note that the Gu and Deyr growing seasons are indicated on this figure as period of peak agricultural growth. Data for all indicators are generated on a monthly timescale. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304202.g014 PLOS ONE Deciphering Climate-induced Displacement in Somalia: A Remote Sensing Perspective PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304202 August 9, 2024 20 / 27