Wind disasters adaptation in cities in a changing climate: A systematic review

Introduction As one of the world’s principal natural disaster types, wind disasters contribute to huge eco- nomic losses and human casualties [1]. They are responsible for destroying buildings and structures [2], killing plants on their paths [3], and inducing respiratory diseases in humans [4]. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) recorded over 2,900 wind-related disasters in the past 120 years [5]. Among the recorded disasters, tropical cyclones alone recorded a fre- quency of 2,299, second only to riverine floods among all disaster subtypes. Apart from the high frequency, wind disasters are noteworthy for their devastating power. Disasters in the United States cost the country 160 billion USD between 1980 and 2019. These include the most expensive hurricane Katrina ($170 billion) and the deadliest Hurricane Maria that killed almost 3,000 people [6]. Therefore, there is an urgent need for adaptation measures to mitigate these adverse impacts, since cities are becoming more vulnerable due to increased develop- ment towards risky zones [7] and reduced protection from ecosystems [8]. Stocker et al. define adaptation as “the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects to either lessen or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities”(pp. 76) [9]. It is demonstrated that proper adaptation measures are cost-effective in decreasing storm damages in the long-term [10, 11]. Effective track monitoring, early warning, and timely evacuation are principal mea- sures to alleviate negative consequences [12]. Well-established watching and warning systems

for tropical cyclones are in place at the national level [13]. And also at the city level in some countries such as Shanghai, China [14]. However, the combination of global warming and weather variability is going to increase uncertainty over future wind disasters. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of wind-related storms [15–18]. For exam- ple, sea-level rise will shorten the return period of extreme floods caused by hurricanes from 100 years to between 3 to 20 years in New York City (NYC) [19]. It is estimated that global damage from tropical cyclones with climate change will be doubled in 2100 compared with the baseline scenario, concentrating in North America, the Caribbean region, and East Asia [20]. The reliability of these projections remains in doubt. Because researchers argue that existing databases are insufficient for long-term predictions due to the development of observational technologies and capabilities [21]. Thus, it is understandable that conflicting conclusions stat- ing a decreasing global mean frequency of tropical cyclones exist [22]. Cities should not only take wind disasters as natural disasters when planning adaptation measures. They should also realize their potential to go beyond natural variability in the context of climate change. Wind-induced damages on buildings are characterized by the so-called “coherent phenom- enon” and “damage chain” [23]. The “coherent phenomenon” is described in such a way that once the eaves are damaged by wind, the roof materials will be blown away thereafter. Debris

flying in the downwind direction may crash into buildings on its track, then similar conse- quences as a coherent phenomenon will happen, which is the so-called “damage chain”. These flying debris are also responsible for human causalities by directly hitting them or by forming obstacles on the road [24]. Nevertheless, the destructiveness of wind-related disasters comes from more than the wind itself as wind disasters can trigger secondary hazards. For example, tropical cyclones are multi-hazard complexes, which may occur together with storm surges, floods, and lightning. The intensity of some secondary hazards such as storm surges is also affected by the wind [25]. All these factors add to the complexity of wind disasters and the dif- ficulty for cities to adapt. In this paper, we aim to address the following questions in the field of wind adaptation in cities: What are the major topics, aspects, and contents discussed in liter- ature? What are the focal cities that are most often studied? What kinds of wind adaptation measures are often suggested or adopted? Has climate change been incorporated into wind adaptation? According to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), an increasing number of cities PLOS ONE Review on wind adaptation in cities PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248503 March 17, 2021 2 / 26 decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. c) No.010914370122, BL, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, https://scit.nju.edu.cn/0b/27/ c10948a461607/page.htm. The funder had no role

in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.