Trumpism, climate and COVID: Social bases of the new science rejection

Table 1 lists variables analyzed here, with response summaries and codes used for model- ing. The variables include background characteristics, political identification, and two conspir- acy questions, along with three endogenous (intervening or dependent) variables of interest: approval of former president Trump, views on climate change, and COVID-19 vaccination status. Experimentally, we calculated probability weights that made the sample marginally more representative. The weights had little effect on relationships or endogenous variable dis- tributions, however, and caused effect estimates to be less precise (inflated the standard errors). Consequently, weighting is not used in the main analyses that follow. Whether unweighted or weighted, the mean Trump approval (Trumpism) was 3.9 on a 1–7 scale; 29 or 30 percent rejected the idea of ACC (NoACC); and 22 percent said they were not planning to get vacci- nated against COVID-19 (NoVax). The fractions rejecting ACC and vaccination appear simi- lar, but these are not the same people: only 9 percent of the sample falls in both camps. The questions about flat Earth and Moon landings are unusual for such research, although topic-specific conspiracy beliefs are well known in public discussion of Trump support, cli- mate change and vaccination. In our survey 10 percent agreed the Earth is flat, and 12 percent agreed that NASA did not land on the Moon. A further 9 percent were unsure whether the Earth is flat, and 17 percent unsure about the Moon landings. These results parallel those of

other recent nationwide surveys that asked flat Earth or Moon landing questions [83,84]. See [41] for comparisons of flat Earth and Moon landing responses to other science-related Table 1. Variables in this analysis, with response percentages from 2021 survey (n = 1,134) and codes used for modeling (Table 2). Endogenous variables Trumpism—Strongly disapprove of former president Trump (1, 36%); somewhat disapprove (2, 5%); lean toward disapproving (3, 5%); neither approve nor disapprove (4, 7%); lean toward approving (5, 7%); somewhat approve (6, 16%); strongly approve (7, 24%). NoACC—Which of the following do you think is more accurate? Climate change is not happening now (1, 5%); climate change is happening now, caused mainly by natural forces (1, 25%); Climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities (0, 63%); don’t know (0, 7%). NoVax—Which of the following describes your own situation, regarding vaccination against COVID-19? I do not plan to be vaccinated (1, 22%); I plan to be vaccinated but have not done so yet (0, 13%); I have received first dose of a 2-shot vaccine (0, 9%); I am fully vaccinated (single dose of 1-shot, or both doses of 2-shot) (0, 56%). Exogenous variables Age—Range 18 to 94 years, mean 48 years. Gender (Female)—Female (1, 51%); Male (0, 47%). Missing values: fewer than 2% identified as non-binary or gave no answer. Race (White)—White non-Hispanic (1, 64%); Black or African American (0, 12%); Hispanic (0, 13%); Asian American (0, 6%); Native American (0, 1%); other or mixed (0, 3%); prefer not to say (0, <1%).

Income—Household income less than $15k (1, 12%); $15–30k (2, 16%); $30–70k (3, 36%); $70–120k (4, 20%); $120– 200k (5, 11%); over $200k (6, 5%). Education—High school or less (–1, 25%); technical school or some college (0, 25%); college graduate (1, 32%); postgraduate work (2, 17%). Religion (Evangelical)—Identify as Christian Evangelical (1, 19%); other Protestant (0, 12%); other Catholic (0, 22%); other Mormon (0, 1%); Jewish (0, 3%); Muslim (0, 3%); Buddhist (0, 2%); Hindu (0, <1%); atheist (0, 4%); agnostic (0, 4%); something else (0, 14%); nothing in particular (0, 16%). Ideology—Extremely liberal (–3, 11%); fairly liberal (–2, 16%); moderate, lean liberal (–1, 12%); moderate, lean neither (0, 19%); moderate, lean conservative (1, 10%); fairly conservative (2, 16%); extremely conservative (3, 16%). Party—Democrat (–1, 46%); Independent (0, 7%); Republican (1, 42%); other or don’t know (coded as missing, 5%). Friends—Most of my friends prefer the same party I do (1, 46%); most prefer different parties (0, 15%); about evenly divided (0, 25%); don’t know (0, 14%). Conspiracist—Sum of moonfake, NASA astronauts did not land on the Moon—disagree (1, 70%), unsure (2, 17%), agree (3, 12%); and earthflat, the Earth is flat, not round—disagree (1, 81%), unsure (2, 9%), agree (3, 10%). Conspiracist ranges from 2 (disagree with both conspiracies, 64%) to 6 (agree with both conspiracies, 4%). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293059.t001 PLOS ONE Trumpism, climate and COVID PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293059 January 10, 2024 5 / 20