Trumpism, climate and COVID: Social bases of the new science rejection

The 2021 date of our US data also is an important limitation. The phenomena studied here —rejection of climate change, COVID-19 vaccination, and admiration for former president Trump—are potentially subject to change. Indeed, temporal caveats apply to any public-opin- ion research, and perhaps more so now than in the past. The stability of conclusions from ear- lier surveys must be an empirical question. On the other hand, similarities shown here between the social bases of ACC and COVID vaccination rejection, one older and one com- paratively recent phenomenon, suggest a degree of stability that could apply to future science- linked issues as well. 7. Conclusions GSEM analysis of a nationally representative US survey conducted in mid-2021 finds both commonalities and differences in the social bases of rejecting anthropogenic climate change and rejecting COVID-19 vaccination. Prominent similarities include: $ Conservative ideology and Trumpism directly increase the likelihood of science rejection in both cases. $ Identification as white or evangelical do not directly affect science rejection, but do so indi- rectly through Trumpism. $ Science rejection on both issues becomes less common with higher education. However, the effects of education are significantly stronger among moderates and liberals. $ Having mostly same-party friends increases the probability of science rejection among Republicans. Notable contrasts between ACC and COVID-19 vaccine rejection include: $ The probability of rejecting ACC increases with age, whereas the probability of vaccine rejec-

tion decreases with age. $ Women are more likely than men to reject vaccination, but the genders are roughly similar (other things being equal) with regard to climate change. $ Vaccine rejection occurs more often in low-income households. Income has no impact on climate-change views. $ Receptivity to conspiracy beliefs directly increases the likelihood of vaccine rejection, while having mainly an indirect effect (through Trumpism) on climate rejection. Indirect effects through Trumpism on both ACC rejection and COVID-19 vaccine rejec- tion add to the direct effects of white and evangelical identity, ideology, party, conspiracism, and the friends×party interaction—strengthening the positive total effects in each case. These conclusions are robust within our 2021 survey dataset but invite comparisons with other issues, other countries, and new data, as political alignments, media reporting, and public per- ceptions on these issues evolve. Supporting information S1 File. Stata-format POLES 2021 survey dataset. (DTA) S2 File. Do-file for GSEM analyses. (DO) PLOS ONE Trumpism, climate and COVID PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293059 January 10, 2024 14 / 20